THE TRUTH ABOUT OIL

 

Here’s the Good Oil

You want the truth about oil? Here it is!

By Ken Ring - Long Range Forecaster and Former Maths Teacher

Take a seed which is no bigger than a grain of rice. Plant it in the ground. Eventually, you will have a tree. The tree will bear fruit. The many generations of fruit from the one tree, from the one seed, which can be mechanically squeezed into vegetable oil or the oil from fruits, by the bucketful, is well known.

In the case of an olive tree, an enormous amount, perhaps a hundred years’ worth from the one tree, from the one seed. What made the oil?

Oil is a natural substance that forms automatically by forces and pressures in the Earth’s mantle. It is virtually everywhere if you can drill deep enough to tap it. Almost all hydrocarbons are produced by the earth crust. Oil and gas are not fossil fuels. They are abiotic and come from bacteria or phytoplankton. Some dry oil wells are refilling.

The myth of fossil fuels has been exploited by climate alarmism. The fossil fuel idea was only to promote scarcity which kept the prices high.

Oil and renewable resource are not words that often appear in the same sentence. Since the economies of entire countries ride on the fundamental notion that oil reserves are exhaustible, any contrary evidence would arguably turn the world view upside down.

If oil is not finite then the price should come down, the panic to find alternatives would be over and in the realization that oil is harmless to the environment, the first casualty would be the international banking system, backed up by the cost of the US dollar which in turn is governed by the cost of oil.

Volcanoes are mostly under the sea and if it were not for undersea volcanoes there would be no land. NZ was formed, as was Iceland, by an alpine fault jumping out of the sea. Pacific atolls sit astride tectonic faults, because that is their origin, which is why bits of land poking out of the ocean like Tuvalu rise and sink again like nature's elevators.

Fault lines are also where the biggest oil reserves are being found. Oil is formed in the heat of volcanism, which is why oil consortiums search the tectonic joins first.

There are oil-feeding bacteria of all kinds: those that eat the oil rapidly and those that degrade the petroleum very slowly, a wide variety. These bacteria work as a team. Some digest the big hydrocarbon molecules of oil generating much shorter chains of carbon; other bacteria consume these shorter chains. It is a pac-man-like food chain similar to the world of fish, where the bigger species eat the smaller. At the termination of this teamwork, the oil has completely disappeared – only remains of water and carbon dioxide are left. Refineries take the crude oil and kill the microbes.

There is no such thing as an "environmental catastrophe" such as an oil leak from a tanker. The microbes in the oil, if left alone, would soon completely clean up the beaches. But each spill is alarmist nonsense, and the published pictures of birds covered in oil is just green propaganda, designed to evoke emotional responses in the population.

If this sounds strangely familiar, CO2 was accused of the same villainy. CO2 from the atmosphere is consumed by trees, which is how they get to grow. A molecule of carbon (from CO2) is added to a molecule of water which makes a carbohydrate molecule; hence the name carbo-hydr-ate, and which is the building block of nature. Burning firewood releases the CO2 back to the air. The atmosphere is always CO2 deficient. In the distant past before vegetation, the air was CO2-rich. Along came plants and grabbed it. When so-called fossil fuels are burned, CO2 is returned to the point of origin, the atmosphere.

Oil was known to be out at sea when native populations told of it drifting onto beaches, which gave oil companies clues on where on the coast to search. Such was the case at Taranaki, where oil washed up on the beach in pre-colonial times.

The use of oil for fuel is very old. The Romans and Canadian Indians used pitch to waterproof their canoes, as did Noah, according to the Bible. Petroleum is a Latin word, and various bitumen products were used to seal leaky Roman pipes, and oil was burned as in lamps, before whale oil.

If we can positively establish that the amount of oil being returned to or remaining in the earth equals or exceeds the amount extracted from it by the number of humans using it then any oil “problem” disappears.

To assess the oil reserves, we must estimate the starting number of barrels of oil in the ground and how much we have so far used. We will never know either answer. So why do so many alarmists paint a doom-filled picture?

Suppose can try to estimate what we have so far used. Global oil use = 31.5 billion barrels per year. One barrel oil = 42 U.S. gallons. One cubic foot = 7.48 U.S. gallons. One cubic mile = 147.2 billion cubic feet. So, the volume of oil consumed by mankind annually = (31.5 x 42) / (7.48 x 147.2) = 1.2 cubic miles of oil per year. The volume of the earth is 260,000 million cubic miles.

If by volume a millionth of the interior of the earth contains oil, there is enough to last 260,000 years. But if 1/250,000 of the earth is oil, which is only about the volume of the Mediterranean Sea and which does not seem at all unreasonable, at the present rate of consumption we can drive our SUVs around for another million years.

You read it right, one million years.

(Extracted from "The Great Global Warming Hoax", by Ken Ring, see website, or Amazon)

Before readers criticize Ken Ring for not having a science degree, they should take a look at this list of Uneducated Leaders or this list of Scientists without Science Degrees then think again before putting him down. Or you could cast your eye over the Wikipedia List of Autodidacts. Oh, you don’t know what an autodidact is? Well, you can become one by finding out for yourself.

 

A WINDFALL FROM DUBAI

 A Warm Wind from Dubai Blows in a Massive Fortune

There is gold in the sands of the Arabian Desert, and in New Zealand, the Blakeboroughs have reason to celebrate a windfall of life-changing proportions – or so we were told.

It happened earlier this week with a message on Facebook from David Teixeira, Branch Office Manager at the Nova Equity Bank Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The message (unedited) is reproduced here.

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Hello Peter Blakeborough My name is David Teixeira, I work with Nova Equity bank Dubai. I write to contact you over a very important business transaction which will be of our best interest and benefit to both our benefits. In 2006, Mr. Adam Blakeborough whose surname is same as yours and has your country in his file as his place of origin, made a fixed deposit for 48 months, valued at $14,500,000.00 with my bank. I was his account officer before I rose to the position of branch accountant. The maturity date for this deposit is 18th of September 2010. Sadly, Mr. Adam Blakeborough was among the death victims in March 12, 2008 earthquake in Sichuan, China that left over 70,000 deaths while he was on business trip. Since the last quarter of 2010 until today, the management of my bank has been finding means to reach him so as ascertain. If he will roll over the deposit or have the contract sum withdrawn. When I discovered that this will happen, I have tried to think up a procedure to preserve this fund and use the proceeds for business. Some directors here have been trying to find out from me the information about this account and the owner, but I have kept it closed because I know that if they become aware that Mr. Adam Blakeborough is late. They will corner the funds for themselves. Therefore, am seeking your co-operation to present you as the one to benefit from his fund at his death since you have the same surname, so that my bank headquarters will pay the funds to you. I have done enough inside bank arrangement and I only have to put in your details into the information network in the bank computers database and records reflecting you as his next of kin. If you concur with this proposal, I intend for you to retain 50% of the funds while 50% shall be for me. I await your response

David Teixeira had an impressive Facebook profile. He was from Orlando, Florida, went to Suncoast Community High School, and Yale University, and now lives in Dubai, UAE. He had lots of family and influential friends on Facebook. So, I replied hopefully using the same grammatically correct English as Mr Teixeira:

Dear David Teixeira,
Thank you so much for your message about the money. I can hardly believe it - $14.5 million! I have some questions as I hope this matter can be settled quickly, due to my financial situation needing more funds. That $14,500,000 is in which countries currency? You don’t seem to have said that. Also I have spoken with my immediate family who are very excited to but 50-50 they say is unfair. so I would like to negotiate a contract to receive the fund but my ancestor would not be happy for 50/50 split of deposit if still alive and would like a larger share to stay in family. So in recognition of your effort you should be handsomely rewarded and I would agree to paying you $4,500,000 and I can settle for $10,000,000 whichever currency that be. Thank you once again for getting in touch. It is so good news. Thank you. I wait for your answers.

Minutes later, I received a reply:

Hi Peter, You are welcome and it’s true that the sum of $14,500,000 is at a bank here in the UAE that is why I have reached out to me after many years of searching for you. The funds is in US dollars currency. I am glad to know that you have spoken to your immediate because this is my wish that your family gets the inheritance of your late family member Adam Blakeborough. I am in agreement with you and I will take this new offer that you have handsomely reward me with the sum of $4,500,000 while you can take the $10,000,000 for that is fairness to you and your family. Also, kindly provide your email address and let me explain more about the business and how we can begin right away

And then I made yet another offer:

Thank you for replying so promptly. We really appreciate everything you are doing to help us. But I must ask one more favor. Because my immediate family has 11 members we are wanting you to agree to your fee being reduced by $1 million to $3,500,000 giving our 11 family members $1 million each, and making each of them a millionaire which they could never have done without your help. This would be a great privilege for them and to you they would be forever grateful, David. We are so overjoyed with the wonderful news you have given.
We look forward to making the settlement with you. Please forward whatever contracts and arrangements needed as soon as possible. Thank you so much.
Peter

The next day I received an email from David:

David Teixeira <david.teiixeiira@gmail.com>

To:peter blakeborough

Wed, 14 Apr at 8:25 pm

Hi Peter Blakeborough,

I am freely giving you full details and explanation of this transaction bearing in mind that you will not betray me because everything I am proposing to you is legit, legal and it's very protected. The name of the bank I work for is Nova Equity Bank Dubai, United Arab Emirates. This transaction requires utmost trust and dedication from your side, since you will be receiving the funds as the next of kin/heir/beneficiary to the late Adam Blakeborough and shall be in control of the money, until I come over for my share. Regarding the sharing, I am not a greedy man, so I believe that my sharing ratio is acceptable to you as I have said early on in our conversation, 75.8 for you and your family while 24.2% is for me which is a fair deal.

David Teixeira, Branch Manager,
Nova Investment Bank, Dubai

I want you to bear one thing in mind, there is no risk involved in this transaction. It is 100% risk free and secured, once you follow my instructions and keep everything secret between us. What I have to do is to place your information in my bank database system as the next of kin/heir/beneficiary to late Adam Blakeborough then you will apply for the claim through a law firm here in the United Arab Emirates. You don't have to come down here for the claim, the law firm will represent you and handle all the documentation involved. As the manager group system development of my bank, the secret of the bank system is under my palms, placing your details in the system database of the bank as the next of kin/heir/beneficiary to late Adam Blakeborough is easy work for me.

There is no risk involved as I repeat again; the transaction will be executed under a legitimate and legal arrangement that will protect both of us from any breach of laws and constitutions in the United Arab Emirates and your country. I am going to recommend you to a good law firm here in the United Arab Emirates, who you shall contact and request for their legal services to represent you for the claims.

Once this is done, the law firm will assign a lawyer to be your attorney and the law firm will do all the work and documentation required for the release of the funds to you as the rightful next of kin/heir/beneficiary to late Adam Blakeborough. I will present you as a family member and closest relative to Adam Blakeborough and the only proof the bank will need is your identification, where your names are written. This is a very smooth operation with me in the bank, it will not last more than 4 weeks and the funds will be released to you as I have told you already.

So what I need to start up the whole process is your details;

FULL NAME:
FATHER'S NAME:
AGE:
DATE OF BIRTH:
COPY OF YOUR ID CARD OR PASSPORT:
OCCUPATION:
MOBILE NUMBER:
HOUSE ADDRESS:

The law firm in question is good and specializes in such cases. As far as my bank is concerned, I will be in control. I believe that God has answered my prayers by creating this opportunity for both of us. Please, remember to treat this transaction with utmost confidentiality for our own good. Upon your response, I will send to you a copy of the deposit slip. I am sending you copy of my ID's
Note: Please keep our confidentiality.

This is a classic Nigerian-type fraud with a double sting. Let me explain.

Online searches for Nova Equity Bank Dubai and David Teixeira (also Teiixeira and Teiixeiira) did not reveal any connection between the bank and the person claiming to be a branch manager for the bank. However, David (or whatever his real name is) has gone to extreme lengths to create an online identity, with Facebook, Instagram, and LinkedIn accounts as well as unsecured accounts in the name of the investment bank and related businesses in Dubai and elsewhere. Some of the accounts are years old. Facebook searches for David Teixeira revealed dozens of people with that name in many parts of the world, but none in Dubai where our David claims to live.

The first conclusion about this David Teixeira must be that that is not his real name.

Next, analysing the messages from David reveals that he has employed the same partly clever, partly clumsy fishhooks that other scammers have used in what have become collectively known as Nigerian frauds. The language he uses is not the language one would expect of an executive in banking or investment, born in Florida, and educated at Yale. It is more likely that English is not his first language, and he has never been involved in any legitimate banking or investment business.

The second conclusion must be that this David is not what he claims to be, and therefore cannot be trusted.

Next, comparing the Teixeira attempted fraud with earlier Nigerian frauds, it is obviously an improvement (from his point of view) on those earlier frauds. He has introduced an additional step in the process of having the funds ‘released’ to the beneficiary. He recommends a ‘highly trustworthy’ law firm to handle the formalities. In the older frauds the victim was asked for a ‘release’ or ‘administration’ fee to be paid so that the transfer process could begin, usually $100 or less, but that was always followed by requests for ever-increasing ‘fees.’ Once hooked, a victim could eventually lose their entire savings. Now the fraudster can get two bites of an ever-increasing cherry, while the victim will get nothing, and likely lose everything before realizing and admitting they have been conned.

The third conclusion must be that this version of the fraud is more sophisticated and therefore likely to have more victims.

Next, honesty and secrecy are over-emphasised in all the Teixeira messages. This is a red-flag, tell-tale sign that David Teixeira is an evil criminal with the same modus operandi as a paedophile – ‘trust me, everything is alright, but it’s a secret between us.’

The fourth conclusion must be that David Teixeira is a dangerous criminal who cannot be trusted in any way.

In his final message via email, David asks for enough information to generate a fake identity. He wants to sell my identity to other criminals who will hack my bank account, transport drugs in my name, obtain credit in my name, or sell a driver licence in my name so that someone else can run up fines in my name.

David Teixeira failed the ultimate test when he was asked twice to offer a better deal. It was easy for him to agree to millions more for the beneficiary because there were no millions to be had. The millions were a complete fiction.

The fifth conclusion must be that anyone receiving a message like the one sent by David Teixeira should immediately delete it and block the sender.

So, you may ask, why didn’t I take my own advice? Because, as soon as I read the opening words of the first message, I knew exactly what I was dealing with. I have seen many such messages before and have posted on Facebook, and Twitter, and on The Hot Wire Times about such frauds and scams. The risk to this writer was minimal. But I also knew that while I was keeping the fraudster occupied, he would have less time to scam others who could have more easily fallen victim.

So, who is David Teixeira really? He could be someone who has answered an enticing social media post that offers huge sums of money for working online from home, no experience needed. He could also be stuck in some third-world country working in a dingy building with dozens of other so-called agents, tapping out his messages to long lists of prospects. He could be an individual working alone with his own version of a time-honoured confidence stunt. However, wherever he is and whoever he is, he will probably be making a meagre income while a master in the background makes a fortune. Often the David Teixeiras of this world become victims too. He has probably never been to Dubai, probably looks nothing like the David Teixeira in the photo, but money from his victims could well be invested in Dubai, or some other place with slack laws that protect criminals. But whether he is rich or poor, David Teixeira does not deserve any of your money, and he certainly has no money for you.

Unfortunately, one of the wisest and mostly widely spread pieces of advice is also one of the least adhered to.
If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is!

So that fewer people will become victims, please share this post on social media for all it is worth.

 

NO PLACE TO HIDE

 Five Major US cities will be 100% Flooded by 2100

Miami, New Orleans, Galveston, Norfolk, and Atlantic City will be 100% under the waves by 2100, according Emeritus Professor Jim Flynn in his book No Place to Hide – Climate Change, A short introduction for New Zealanders. Flynn also predicts that eight other US cities will be at least 50% flooded with an 8-metre (26.2 feet) sea level rise due to ice melt and thermal expansion of the oceans.

Should we be alarmed? The answer to that will become self-evident. First, let’s look at the professor and why he wrote No Place to Hide.

Here is the blurb from the back cover of the book:

Millions of educated people all over the world feel powerless in the face of climate change and its consequences, partially because the literature on the environment is so vast it is difficult to know where to begin. This short book is intended to make their search for the truth manageable. It allows the reader to isolate the crucial issues and form his or her own opinion, and while it addresses a world audience it has a particular relevance for New Zealanders.

Its strongest claim is that there are really two kinds of skeptics we must rebut: not just climate change deniers but also climate change engineering deniers. The latter acknowledge the problem of climate change but deny the need for large-scale engineering intervention in Earth’s climatic system.

In No Place to Hide, Professor Flynn argues that we must face the fact that climate engineering is necessary to buy the time to achieve carbon-free energy, and unless this is implemented soon, we will pass a point of no return. We need proposals that governments around the world can accept without committing political suicide.

No Place to Hide is a short but enormously important book that will give the reader the information they need to make a difference.

Then below the blurb a little about the professor:

Jim Flynn is Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of Otago, an Honorary Doctor of Science, recipient of the Gold Medal for Distinguished Career Research, and a fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand. In 2011, Jim was awarded the Royal Society of New Zealand’s Humanities Aronui Medal for his outstanding work in political philosophy and his discovery of historical gains in IQ – known as the Flynn effect. Recently, Jim realized that he had no educated opinion about the chief moral psychological problem of our time, global warming, and felt disadvantaged – hence this book.

Reading the blurb and flicking through the pages in the bookshop left questions unanswered. Why did the professor claim to have no educated understanding of climate change while calling it the most important issue of our time? Why, after including many accepted historical facts about climate in the book, did he arrive at conclusions that were not consistent with those facts? Did the Professor of Politics fall victim to the greatest political trap known to man in the mindset known as confirmation bias, where the believer believes what he wants to believe and all else is false?

The book was purchased without further hesitation. I had to know the answers to the questions.

The first 25 pages of No Place to Hide gave an accurate summary of the history of Earth’s climate, and how it has changed naturally over hundreds of millions of years, how it is a complex, chaotic, but self-regulating system, but the next 60 pages are devoted to drawing fantasy conclusions from the factual evidence, and stunningly so. I asked myself, was it me who was the victim of confirmation bias but remembered that I had once been a climate alarmist who thought that the planet was headed for disaster. Two things changed my mind; the predictions of climate doom were failing to materialize, and my knowledge of meteorology, politics, and history jolted me back to reality.  There was also a third good reason for not being alarmed about global warming. It is generally assumed by alarmists that a warmer climate will be bad for man and the planet, but that is a flawed assumption. We should all know that a warmer climate is generally better than a colder climate. A warmer climate means more food, less sickness and disease, and fewer people dying of cold. Of all the features of the planet’s surface, snow, ice, and desert are the three most useless features, while the tropics have an abundance of life in all its forms. I had to know what drove Jim Flynn to the conclusions found in his book, so I did some research on him.

Jim Flynn is famous for having discovered the Flynn effect. He discovered that man is becoming progressively more intelligent, and that we are each generally more intelligent than our grandparents. But hold on a moment, Jim. Do we really need a university professor to tell us that our ability to reason has been expanding ever since our most ancient ancestors crawled from the sea billions of years ago? Please, Professor, tell us something new and intelligent.

Flynn describes himself as an atheist, science realist, and social democrat. But putting God aside, science realist and social democrat raise questions here about whether he does in fact tend towards confirmation bias. According to Britannica, social democracy is a political ideology that originally advocated a peaceful evolutionary transition of society from capitalism to socialism using established political processes. In the second half of the 20th century, there emerged a more moderate version of the doctrine, which generally espoused state regulation, rather than state ownership. However, Jim Flynn appears to be still locked onto the earlier shackles of state ownership and control, and one of a growing number of extreme-left hard-liners who see the United Nations, not as a vehicle for international co-operation, but international control.

As a ‘science realist’ he fails to make a realistic connection between climate history and his predictions for the future. Flynn makes many erroneous assumptions about how a warmer climate would affect the planet. Like many climate alarmists, his claims of wilder weather events, larger deserts, and outrageous sea-level predictions, points of no return (or tipping points) are not borne out by real science. A warmer climate would see more rainfall as the tropics extend their reach into the current temperate zones with increased evaporation from the seas. The tropical zones, like the Amazon region, already have an abundance of tropical growth and food. A warmer climate will not turn the Amazon basin into a desert, and there is no science to support that.

While the first part of No Place to Hide is well-researched and written, it fails to join the dots between the past and the future. It finishes as a limp left-wing plea to trust us; we know what is best for the world. But unfortunately, Jim Flynn’s climate flea is somewhat smaller than his political dogma.

Published in 2016, some of the predictions for 2020 have already failed and others in the short term are looking impossible to meet. The climate engineering proposals are equally ludicrous, with mirrors in the sky reflecting the heat back to the Sun, pumping the cold sea floor waters to the surface and the warm surface water down, pumping liquid sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, and fleets of ships spraying sea salt into the sky to make the clouds brighter to reflect the incoming heat. These whacky ideas in the sky are just pie in the sky, and talking of pie, thanks to industrialization, a slightly warmer climate and more carbon dioxide, a larger proportion of the world population is now getting a bigger slice of the economic pie.

No Place to Hide is not a book to be taken seriously, but if I were its author, I’d have reason to be seriously looking for somewhere to hide.

 

CORONAVIRUS

Will Coronavirus Covi-19 spell the end of humanity, as some are claiming?

Goodbye to the age of the Yellow Vest protests. The age of the face mask is upon us. Next up will be the age of the rotting corpse. The planet will be littered with dead bodies, each garbed in a less than useless face mask, and there will be no one left to bury the dead. But wait, there may be good news hidden in the bad news, it has been said that maggots are immune to Covid-19. Therefore, if this worst-case scenario plays out in real life (or death), the planet will restart itself with a clean slate, and the last remaining climate alarmists and extinction rebels will be able to celebrate with their last feverish dying gasps.

Meanwhile, on Facebook the Doomsday Group are signing up a million new members every day, and the Flat Earth Society are debating a name change to the Levelled Earth Society. In Washington D.C., Donald Trump continues his campaign for re-election as the last President of the United States, and the eternal fame that will go with it. The world is in a state of lethal turmoil and the bad news is that downing copious cans of Corona Beer will not drown your Coronavirus. This is the virus to end all viruses for the rest of eternity . . .

That’s one view.

History is littered with plagues and pandemics; each having been a large-scale killer of thousands and sometimes millions of unfortunate people. Interestingly, the greatest killers wrought their havoc when there were fewer people available for killing, like the Plague of Justinian in Europe in 541-542 A.D. when up to 50 million died, or 50% of the population. From 1331 to 1353 in Europe, Asia and North Africa somewhere between 75 and 200 million (30-60% of the population) died of the Black Death. In the 18^th century, the greatest loss of life with a single infectious outbreak was the Persian Plague of 1772 when two million died. In the 19^th century, the Third Cholera Pandemic claimed one million lives in Russia between 1852 and 1860, while another one million died worldwide from the 1889-1890 Influenza Pandemic. Meanwhile, HIV/AIDS has taken 32 million lives since 1960 and continues to kill to this day.

American victims of the 1918 Spanish Flu
in a Kansas hospital

Infectious diseases took a turn for the worse early in the 20^th century with the outbreak of Spanish Flu in 1918. By 1920, the disease had claimed up to 100 million lives worldwide. Asian Flu in 1957-58 took 2 million lives worldwide, and Hong Kong Flu claimed one million worldwide in 1968-69. To date, the worst infectious disease outbreak of the 21^st century has been the Ebola Epidemic of 2013 to 2016, claiming 11,000 lives in West Africa. An outbreak of cholera in Haiti took 10,000 lives from 2010 to 2017. So far Covid-19 has claimed almost 3,000 lives, has peaked in China where it originated, and will soon peak elsewhere.

Population estimates for ancient history are sketchy at best. For example, while the world was emerging from the Last Glacial Maximum 12,000 years ago and man discovered (or perhaps rediscovered) agriculture, the world population was estimated to be between one and 15 million. Some researchers have estimated an average population of five million with fluctuations of up to plus or minus four million due to frequent famines, wars and pandemics. The population, such as it was, was mostly confined to the tropics and sub-tropics. Life was short and hard, and few people made it to age 20. One positive aspect of life at the time was the generally lower sea level, making migration easier by way of land bridges that went under the waves as the great ice sheets succumbed.

It is believed that population totals surged briefly during the Roman and Medieval Warm periods but slumped again during the Little Ice Age (1500-1850 approximately). However, it wasn’t until modern census methods were adopted about 1700 A.D. that reliable data became available for advanced jurisdictions. The Industrial Revolution, and the lesser revolutions of agriculture, education and medicine, brought prosperity and longer lives for more people, and an exploding population for the world. The one billion population milestone was reached in 1804, two billion in 1927, three billion in 1960, four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999, and seven billion in 2011.

See also:

Things to Fear in the Future
Overpopulation

Media Bias and Fake News

While the population has exploded, it has not been matched by a similar magnitude increase in pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, compared with earlier times, when there is an infectious outbreak, the death rate is generally lower now, and a larger proportion now make a full recovery. In this regard, Coronavirus Covid-19 may be different. Because it is a new strain of an old common virus, it wasn’t expected, was slow to be recognized for what it was, and how to treat it. The cat was quite literally out of the bag before anyone knew there was a cat in the bag. The cat sprang at the most opportune time. It was winter in the Northern Hemisphere (the time and hemisphere where most outbreaks happen) and the world economy was booming with record numbers moving every which way on business or pleasure. It was inevitable that getting the cat back in the bag, and giving it the obligatory pill, would be no easy task.

According to Wikipedia, Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and death. Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

After a hesitant start by China, the response of governments almost everywhere to this new virus has been exemplary. It was almost as though they were expecting something to happen without knowing exactly what. We’ve never seen such a response before, even in the deadliest earlier outbreaks. The measures put in place so swiftly and decisively will most likely mean that Coronavirus Covid-19 will not have the same effect as the epidemics of 1957, 1918 or the Black Plague, and the hundreds of pandemics throughout history. The rapid mass international travel that is so commonplace today was sure to be the opening for a new pandemic to spread like an international wildfire, but obviously governments have been up to speed on the possibility and have acted accordingly. But now governments and the WHO must be careful not to over-react and cause an economic depression that could kill more people than is could save.

There are already signs that the virus has peaked in China and peaks may soon be reached in other countries. By mid-year the world trend in new cases should be downward, and by this time next year the whole thing could be consigned to history. There will be living victims who will have an economic price to pay in terms of lost business and employment, disrupted travel, and everything else that flows on from that. But if that stems the loss of life, it will be worth it.

Meanwhile, for more than 99% of the population, life will go on as before and there should be no reason for panic buying or heading for the hills and a hermit lifestyle. Face masks need only be worn by those already infected. As with any cold or flu bug, the best course of action is to cover your mouth when coughing, wash and dry your hands thoroughly and frequently, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with your hands.

Finally, celebrate the wonderful life your pioneering ancestors created for you, with a cold Corona Beer, or another drop of your own choosing.

KOBE BRYANT CRASH

Kobe Bryant Joins a Long List of Celebrity Death Flights

They may all have one shocking thing in common?

(CNN)In his final transmission, the pilot of a helicopter that crashed, killing nine people including NBA legend Kobe Bryant, told air traffic control he was climbing to avoid a cloud layer, the National Transportation Safety Board said Monday.

When air traffic control asked the pilot what he planned to do, there was no reply, NTSB board member Jennifer Homendy told reporters. The last radar contact was around 9:45 a.m. (12:45 p.m. ET) Sunday, she said.

Radar data indicated the helicopter climbed 2,300 feet and began a left descending turn, she said.

Here is a post from THE HOT WIRE TIMES from 7 February 2015:

INSTRUMENT FLYING FOR DUMMIES

Why pilots fly on instruments instead of looking out the window

Most people believe that flying an aircraft in cloud is really not much different to flying in clear air, after all they must still know which way they are going, which is up and which is down, whether they are turning or flying straight, climbing or descending. It should all be easy. If they can’t see, there is nothing to stop them going by feel. Okay, they may find it a little hard to locate a destination airport but getting to the general vicinity should be a piece of cake. What could possibly go wrong? 

Unfortunately, many low-time private pilots also believe this dangerous fallacy. During the earliest years of aviation, accidents were common. Structural failure and loss of control was the most common cause, but as aircraft design, performance, and pilot training improved, another hazard presented itself. Pilots flying in reduced visibility often encountered a new kind of hazard that they were untrained and unprepared for. It was called spatial disorientation.

Spatial disorientation is a sneaky but rapid killer. Many victims strike the ground at high speed before they even realise there is a problem. Others fight for control, but rely on their senses or feelings, rather than their instruments for situational awareness. Spatial disorientation can take several forms. Typically, a pilot who is untrained for instrument flying, will feel a slight rotation about one of the three axis of his machine; he will feel pitch, roll or yaw. So, he will make a small correction to bring it back on even keel, but that will be when his troubles may really begin. He may over-correct, or under-correct. For example, if he detects a slight turn to the right, he will apply opposite control (the same inputs for starting a left turn), but as the rate of turn decreases it will already feel as though he has started a turn in the opposite direction and as there are no external reference points to tell him otherwise, he will believe his feelings.

But that situation is only the beginning of the pilot’s problems because turning an aircraft, in terms of dynamics, is not a simple matter. It involves rotation around all three axis. It rolls, pitches and yaws all in the same movement and the pilot must control all three simultaneously. If he fails to do that accurately a fourth dimension immediately comes into play and that dimension is airspeed. So now the pilot has four things to control and the minor disturbance (or misconception) that started with a small correction on the controls has quickly become a complicated but crucial situation. The pilot’s actions in the next few seconds will determine whether he lives or dies. Most modern aircraft can fly straight and level for a time without any input from the pilot. They are inherently stable, but only until they start to turn. Left to its own devices the angle of bank will get progressively steeper, the radius of turn will tighten and the nose will drop allowing the airspeed to increase. Within a few seconds, perhaps a minute or two at the most, the gentle turn will have developed into what is commonly known as a graveyard spiral. The only uncertainty with a graveyard spiral is the question of which will come first – structural failure, or impact with the ground.

 The standard IFR panel for many years was known as The Six Pack. From L to R, top to bottom, they

                       were the Airspeed Indicator, Artificial Horizon, Altimeter, Turn & Bank Indicator, Gyro Compass
                                                                             and Vertical Speed Indicator

The pilot’s instruments will tell him early in the event exactly what is happening, but if he doesn’t understand them, they will be of little use. Before undergoing thorough instrument flight training all pilots believe their bodily senses, just as we do all day every day on the ground when we have external reference points. He will also believe the forces on the seat of his pants and the balance mechanisms in our ears. That’s the natural thing to do. But instrument flying is not natural. Without training, understanding and self-discipline, an untrained pilot in cloud or fog, will fare no better than a scared cat on a multi-lane, busy highway. Control and panic do not belong together.

Flight safety started to improve after research and development work by the legendary American pilot, Jimmy Doolittle. In 1929, Doolittle made the first successful take-off, circuit and landing, flying solely by reference to instruments. His developments included the artificial horizon and the gyro compass. Within a few years most airline and military flying was conducted using Instrument Flight Rules and aviation became safer.

When this blogger started flying in 1954 there was a rule that pilots who were not instrument rated, or not flying on an IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) flight plan had to stay at least 500 feet vertically and 2,000 feet horizontally from cloud. They were limited to VFR (Visual Flight Rules) and they operated in airspace away from IFR controlled airspace. It was a sound rule. But many pilots, deliberately or accidentally, strayed from the rule, and many paid with their lives.  

But even today, many people including some pilots, believe that their natural senses will be all they need to survive in cloud or fog. When that thinking is combined with a poor understanding of the weather and visibility along the route, rugged terrain and over-confidence, accidents are bound to happen. In the worst-case scenario, marginal weather can change to no-go weather, a pilot can be caught en route with nowhere to go and may be forced to land away from an airport. Visual flying by the inexperienced can be hazardous even when the intentions are good. Even now 40% of all general aviation accidents can be attributed to loss of control due to spatial disorientation.

There is a long list of celebrity visual pilots and passengers who died trusting their senses instead of getting the correct training and trusting their instruments.

Singers Patsy Cline and Jim Reeves had more than singing in common. Cline’s pilot and Reeves were trained by the same flight instructor. Neither pilot was instrument rated but both died while attempting to fly in instrument conditions. Buddy Holly died when his non-instrument rated charter pilot took-off into a snowstorm at night. Boxer Rocky Marciano died in a Cessna 172 flown in poor visibility by a pilot who was not instrument rated. More recently, John F. Kennedy Jnr died when he lost control of his aircraft during a flight over water on a dark night. He was not instrument rated.

After I had been flying for several years I undertook the training for an instrument rating, including cross-country navigation, various instrument approaches and recovery from unusual situations, not so that I could file an IFR flight plan and cruise above the clouds, but just for insurance against my own errors of judgement while flying VFR. I believe every pilot should be trained to IFR standard.

Many of the spatial disorientation accidents happen in aircraft fully equipped for instrument flying, but to pilots who are not instrument trained. Some of them seem to believe that having the instruments is more important than the training, but they continue to believe their natural instincts instead of the instruments and continue to die with only seconds warning.