NO PLACE TO HIDE

 Five Major US cities will be 100% Flooded by 2100

Miami, New Orleans, Galveston, Norfolk, and Atlantic City will be 100% under the waves by 2100, according Emeritus Professor Jim Flynn in his book No Place to Hide – Climate Change, A short introduction for New Zealanders. Flynn also predicts that eight other US cities will be at least 50% flooded with an 8-metre (26.2 feet) sea level rise due to ice melt and thermal expansion of the oceans.

Should we be alarmed? The answer to that will become self-evident. First, let’s look at the professor and why he wrote No Place to Hide.

Here is the blurb from the back cover of the book:

Millions of educated people all over the world feel powerless in the face of climate change and its consequences, partially because the literature on the environment is so vast it is difficult to know where to begin. This short book is intended to make their search for the truth manageable. It allows the reader to isolate the crucial issues and form his or her own opinion, and while it addresses a world audience it has a particular relevance for New Zealanders.

Its strongest claim is that there are really two kinds of skeptics we must rebut: not just climate change deniers but also climate change engineering deniers. The latter acknowledge the problem of climate change but deny the need for large-scale engineering intervention in Earth’s climatic system.

In No Place to Hide, Professor Flynn argues that we must face the fact that climate engineering is necessary to buy the time to achieve carbon-free energy, and unless this is implemented soon, we will pass a point of no return. We need proposals that governments around the world can accept without committing political suicide.

No Place to Hide is a short but enormously important book that will give the reader the information they need to make a difference.

Then below the blurb a little about the professor:

Jim Flynn is Emeritus Professor of Politics at the University of Otago, an Honorary Doctor of Science, recipient of the Gold Medal for Distinguished Career Research, and a fellow of the Royal Society of New Zealand. In 2011, Jim was awarded the Royal Society of New Zealand’s Humanities Aronui Medal for his outstanding work in political philosophy and his discovery of historical gains in IQ – known as the Flynn effect. Recently, Jim realized that he had no educated opinion about the chief moral psychological problem of our time, global warming, and felt disadvantaged – hence this book.

Reading the blurb and flicking through the pages in the bookshop left questions unanswered. Why did the professor claim to have no educated understanding of climate change while calling it the most important issue of our time? Why, after including many accepted historical facts about climate in the book, did he arrive at conclusions that were not consistent with those facts? Did the Professor of Politics fall victim to the greatest political trap known to man in the mindset known as confirmation bias, where the believer believes what he wants to believe and all else is false?

The book was purchased without further hesitation. I had to know the answers to the questions.

The first 25 pages of No Place to Hide gave an accurate summary of the history of Earth’s climate, and how it has changed naturally over hundreds of millions of years, how it is a complex, chaotic, but self-regulating system, but the next 60 pages are devoted to drawing fantasy conclusions from the factual evidence, and stunningly so. I asked myself, was it me who was the victim of confirmation bias but remembered that I had once been a climate alarmist who thought that the planet was headed for disaster. Two things changed my mind; the predictions of climate doom were failing to materialize, and my knowledge of meteorology, politics, and history jolted me back to reality.  There was also a third good reason for not being alarmed about global warming. It is generally assumed by alarmists that a warmer climate will be bad for man and the planet, but that is a flawed assumption. We should all know that a warmer climate is generally better than a colder climate. A warmer climate means more food, less sickness and disease, and fewer people dying of cold. Of all the features of the planet’s surface, snow, ice, and desert are the three most useless features, while the tropics have an abundance of life in all its forms. I had to know what drove Jim Flynn to the conclusions found in his book, so I did some research on him.

Jim Flynn is famous for having discovered the Flynn effect. He discovered that man is becoming progressively more intelligent, and that we are each generally more intelligent than our grandparents. But hold on a moment, Jim. Do we really need a university professor to tell us that our ability to reason has been expanding ever since our most ancient ancestors crawled from the sea billions of years ago? Please, Professor, tell us something new and intelligent.

Flynn describes himself as an atheist, science realist, and social democrat. But putting God aside, science realist and social democrat raise questions here about whether he does in fact tend towards confirmation bias. According to Britannica, social democracy is a political ideology that originally advocated a peaceful evolutionary transition of society from capitalism to socialism using established political processes. In the second half of the 20th century, there emerged a more moderate version of the doctrine, which generally espoused state regulation, rather than state ownership. However, Jim Flynn appears to be still locked onto the earlier shackles of state ownership and control, and one of a growing number of extreme-left hard-liners who see the United Nations, not as a vehicle for international co-operation, but international control.

As a ‘science realist’ he fails to make a realistic connection between climate history and his predictions for the future. Flynn makes many erroneous assumptions about how a warmer climate would affect the planet. Like many climate alarmists, his claims of wilder weather events, larger deserts, and outrageous sea-level predictions, points of no return (or tipping points) are not borne out by real science. A warmer climate would see more rainfall as the tropics extend their reach into the current temperate zones with increased evaporation from the seas. The tropical zones, like the Amazon region, already have an abundance of tropical growth and food. A warmer climate will not turn the Amazon basin into a desert, and there is no science to support that.

While the first part of No Place to Hide is well-researched and written, it fails to join the dots between the past and the future. It finishes as a limp left-wing plea to trust us; we know what is best for the world. But unfortunately, Jim Flynn’s climate flea is somewhat smaller than his political dogma.

Published in 2016, some of the predictions for 2020 have already failed and others in the short term are looking impossible to meet. The climate engineering proposals are equally ludicrous, with mirrors in the sky reflecting the heat back to the Sun, pumping the cold sea floor waters to the surface and the warm surface water down, pumping liquid sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere, and fleets of ships spraying sea salt into the sky to make the clouds brighter to reflect the incoming heat. These whacky ideas in the sky are just pie in the sky, and talking of pie, thanks to industrialization, a slightly warmer climate and more carbon dioxide, a larger proportion of the world population is now getting a bigger slice of the economic pie.

No Place to Hide is not a book to be taken seriously, but if I were its author, I’d have reason to be seriously looking for somewhere to hide.

 

CORONAVIRUS

Will Coronavirus Covi-19 spell the end of humanity, as some are claiming?

Goodbye to the age of the Yellow Vest protests. The age of the face mask is upon us. Next up will be the age of the rotting corpse. The planet will be littered with dead bodies, each garbed in a less than useless face mask, and there will be no one left to bury the dead. But wait, there may be good news hidden in the bad news, it has been said that maggots are immune to Covid-19. Therefore, if this worst-case scenario plays out in real life (or death), the planet will restart itself with a clean slate, and the last remaining climate alarmists and extinction rebels will be able to celebrate with their last feverish dying gasps.

Meanwhile, on Facebook the Doomsday Group are signing up a million new members every day, and the Flat Earth Society are debating a name change to the Levelled Earth Society. In Washington D.C., Donald Trump continues his campaign for re-election as the last President of the United States, and the eternal fame that will go with it. The world is in a state of lethal turmoil and the bad news is that downing copious cans of Corona Beer will not drown your Coronavirus. This is the virus to end all viruses for the rest of eternity . . .

That’s one view.

History is littered with plagues and pandemics; each having been a large-scale killer of thousands and sometimes millions of unfortunate people. Interestingly, the greatest killers wrought their havoc when there were fewer people available for killing, like the Plague of Justinian in Europe in 541-542 A.D. when up to 50 million died, or 50% of the population. From 1331 to 1353 in Europe, Asia and North Africa somewhere between 75 and 200 million (30-60% of the population) died of the Black Death. In the 18^th century, the greatest loss of life with a single infectious outbreak was the Persian Plague of 1772 when two million died. In the 19^th century, the Third Cholera Pandemic claimed one million lives in Russia between 1852 and 1860, while another one million died worldwide from the 1889-1890 Influenza Pandemic. Meanwhile, HIV/AIDS has taken 32 million lives since 1960 and continues to kill to this day.

American victims of the 1918 Spanish Flu
in a Kansas hospital

Infectious diseases took a turn for the worse early in the 20^th century with the outbreak of Spanish Flu in 1918. By 1920, the disease had claimed up to 100 million lives worldwide. Asian Flu in 1957-58 took 2 million lives worldwide, and Hong Kong Flu claimed one million worldwide in 1968-69. To date, the worst infectious disease outbreak of the 21^st century has been the Ebola Epidemic of 2013 to 2016, claiming 11,000 lives in West Africa. An outbreak of cholera in Haiti took 10,000 lives from 2010 to 2017. So far Covid-19 has claimed almost 3,000 lives, has peaked in China where it originated, and will soon peak elsewhere.

Population estimates for ancient history are sketchy at best. For example, while the world was emerging from the Last Glacial Maximum 12,000 years ago and man discovered (or perhaps rediscovered) agriculture, the world population was estimated to be between one and 15 million. Some researchers have estimated an average population of five million with fluctuations of up to plus or minus four million due to frequent famines, wars and pandemics. The population, such as it was, was mostly confined to the tropics and sub-tropics. Life was short and hard, and few people made it to age 20. One positive aspect of life at the time was the generally lower sea level, making migration easier by way of land bridges that went under the waves as the great ice sheets succumbed.

It is believed that population totals surged briefly during the Roman and Medieval Warm periods but slumped again during the Little Ice Age (1500-1850 approximately). However, it wasn’t until modern census methods were adopted about 1700 A.D. that reliable data became available for advanced jurisdictions. The Industrial Revolution, and the lesser revolutions of agriculture, education and medicine, brought prosperity and longer lives for more people, and an exploding population for the world. The one billion population milestone was reached in 1804, two billion in 1927, three billion in 1960, four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999, and seven billion in 2011.

See also:

Things to Fear in the Future
Overpopulation

Media Bias and Fake News

While the population has exploded, it has not been matched by a similar magnitude increase in pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, compared with earlier times, when there is an infectious outbreak, the death rate is generally lower now, and a larger proportion now make a full recovery. In this regard, Coronavirus Covid-19 may be different. Because it is a new strain of an old common virus, it wasn’t expected, was slow to be recognized for what it was, and how to treat it. The cat was quite literally out of the bag before anyone knew there was a cat in the bag. The cat sprang at the most opportune time. It was winter in the Northern Hemisphere (the time and hemisphere where most outbreaks happen) and the world economy was booming with record numbers moving every which way on business or pleasure. It was inevitable that getting the cat back in the bag, and giving it the obligatory pill, would be no easy task.

According to Wikipedia, Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and death. Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

After a hesitant start by China, the response of governments almost everywhere to this new virus has been exemplary. It was almost as though they were expecting something to happen without knowing exactly what. We’ve never seen such a response before, even in the deadliest earlier outbreaks. The measures put in place so swiftly and decisively will most likely mean that Coronavirus Covid-19 will not have the same effect as the epidemics of 1957, 1918 or the Black Plague, and the hundreds of pandemics throughout history. The rapid mass international travel that is so commonplace today was sure to be the opening for a new pandemic to spread like an international wildfire, but obviously governments have been up to speed on the possibility and have acted accordingly. But now governments and the WHO must be careful not to over-react and cause an economic depression that could kill more people than is could save.

There are already signs that the virus has peaked in China and peaks may soon be reached in other countries. By mid-year the world trend in new cases should be downward, and by this time next year the whole thing could be consigned to history. There will be living victims who will have an economic price to pay in terms of lost business and employment, disrupted travel, and everything else that flows on from that. But if that stems the loss of life, it will be worth it.

Meanwhile, for more than 99% of the population, life will go on as before and there should be no reason for panic buying or heading for the hills and a hermit lifestyle. Face masks need only be worn by those already infected. As with any cold or flu bug, the best course of action is to cover your mouth when coughing, wash and dry your hands thoroughly and frequently, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with your hands.

Finally, celebrate the wonderful life your pioneering ancestors created for you, with a cold Corona Beer, or another drop of your own choosing.

KOBE BRYANT CRASH

Kobe Bryant Joins a Long List of Celebrity Death Flights

They may all have one shocking thing in common?

(CNN)In his final transmission, the pilot of a helicopter that crashed, killing nine people including NBA legend Kobe Bryant, told air traffic control he was climbing to avoid a cloud layer, the National Transportation Safety Board said Monday.

When air traffic control asked the pilot what he planned to do, there was no reply, NTSB board member Jennifer Homendy told reporters. The last radar contact was around 9:45 a.m. (12:45 p.m. ET) Sunday, she said.

Radar data indicated the helicopter climbed 2,300 feet and began a left descending turn, she said.

Here is a post from THE HOT WIRE TIMES from 7 February 2015:

INSTRUMENT FLYING FOR DUMMIES

Why pilots fly on instruments instead of looking out the window

Most people believe that flying an aircraft in cloud is really not much different to flying in clear air, after all they must still know which way they are going, which is up and which is down, whether they are turning or flying straight, climbing or descending. It should all be easy. If they can’t see, there is nothing to stop them going by feel. Okay, they may find it a little hard to locate a destination airport but getting to the general vicinity should be a piece of cake. What could possibly go wrong? 

Unfortunately, many low-time private pilots also believe this dangerous fallacy. During the earliest years of aviation, accidents were common. Structural failure and loss of control was the most common cause, but as aircraft design, performance, and pilot training improved, another hazard presented itself. Pilots flying in reduced visibility often encountered a new kind of hazard that they were untrained and unprepared for. It was called spatial disorientation.

Spatial disorientation is a sneaky but rapid killer. Many victims strike the ground at high speed before they even realise there is a problem. Others fight for control, but rely on their senses or feelings, rather than their instruments for situational awareness. Spatial disorientation can take several forms. Typically, a pilot who is untrained for instrument flying, will feel a slight rotation about one of the three axis of his machine; he will feel pitch, roll or yaw. So, he will make a small correction to bring it back on even keel, but that will be when his troubles may really begin. He may over-correct, or under-correct. For example, if he detects a slight turn to the right, he will apply opposite control (the same inputs for starting a left turn), but as the rate of turn decreases it will already feel as though he has started a turn in the opposite direction and as there are no external reference points to tell him otherwise, he will believe his feelings.

But that situation is only the beginning of the pilot’s problems because turning an aircraft, in terms of dynamics, is not a simple matter. It involves rotation around all three axis. It rolls, pitches and yaws all in the same movement and the pilot must control all three simultaneously. If he fails to do that accurately a fourth dimension immediately comes into play and that dimension is airspeed. So now the pilot has four things to control and the minor disturbance (or misconception) that started with a small correction on the controls has quickly become a complicated but crucial situation. The pilot’s actions in the next few seconds will determine whether he lives or dies. Most modern aircraft can fly straight and level for a time without any input from the pilot. They are inherently stable, but only until they start to turn. Left to its own devices the angle of bank will get progressively steeper, the radius of turn will tighten and the nose will drop allowing the airspeed to increase. Within a few seconds, perhaps a minute or two at the most, the gentle turn will have developed into what is commonly known as a graveyard spiral. The only uncertainty with a graveyard spiral is the question of which will come first – structural failure, or impact with the ground.

 The standard IFR panel for many years was known as The Six Pack. From L to R, top to bottom, they

                       were the Airspeed Indicator, Artificial Horizon, Altimeter, Turn & Bank Indicator, Gyro Compass
                                                                             and Vertical Speed Indicator

The pilot’s instruments will tell him early in the event exactly what is happening, but if he doesn’t understand them, they will be of little use. Before undergoing thorough instrument flight training all pilots believe their bodily senses, just as we do all day every day on the ground when we have external reference points. He will also believe the forces on the seat of his pants and the balance mechanisms in our ears. That’s the natural thing to do. But instrument flying is not natural. Without training, understanding and self-discipline, an untrained pilot in cloud or fog, will fare no better than a scared cat on a multi-lane, busy highway. Control and panic do not belong together.

Flight safety started to improve after research and development work by the legendary American pilot, Jimmy Doolittle. In 1929, Doolittle made the first successful take-off, circuit and landing, flying solely by reference to instruments. His developments included the artificial horizon and the gyro compass. Within a few years most airline and military flying was conducted using Instrument Flight Rules and aviation became safer.

When this blogger started flying in 1954 there was a rule that pilots who were not instrument rated, or not flying on an IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) flight plan had to stay at least 500 feet vertically and 2,000 feet horizontally from cloud. They were limited to VFR (Visual Flight Rules) and they operated in airspace away from IFR controlled airspace. It was a sound rule. But many pilots, deliberately or accidentally, strayed from the rule, and many paid with their lives.  

But even today, many people including some pilots, believe that their natural senses will be all they need to survive in cloud or fog. When that thinking is combined with a poor understanding of the weather and visibility along the route, rugged terrain and over-confidence, accidents are bound to happen. In the worst-case scenario, marginal weather can change to no-go weather, a pilot can be caught en route with nowhere to go and may be forced to land away from an airport. Visual flying by the inexperienced can be hazardous even when the intentions are good. Even now 40% of all general aviation accidents can be attributed to loss of control due to spatial disorientation.

There is a long list of celebrity visual pilots and passengers who died trusting their senses instead of getting the correct training and trusting their instruments.

Singers Patsy Cline and Jim Reeves had more than singing in common. Cline’s pilot and Reeves were trained by the same flight instructor. Neither pilot was instrument rated but both died while attempting to fly in instrument conditions. Buddy Holly died when his non-instrument rated charter pilot took-off into a snowstorm at night. Boxer Rocky Marciano died in a Cessna 172 flown in poor visibility by a pilot who was not instrument rated. More recently, John F. Kennedy Jnr died when he lost control of his aircraft during a flight over water on a dark night. He was not instrument rated.

After I had been flying for several years I undertook the training for an instrument rating, including cross-country navigation, various instrument approaches and recovery from unusual situations, not so that I could file an IFR flight plan and cruise above the clouds, but just for insurance against my own errors of judgement while flying VFR. I believe every pilot should be trained to IFR standard.

Many of the spatial disorientation accidents happen in aircraft fully equipped for instrument flying, but to pilots who are not instrument trained. Some of them seem to believe that having the instruments is more important than the training, but they continue to believe their natural instincts instead of the instruments and continue to die with only seconds warning.

ANOTHER GADDAFI SCAM

The Gaddafi Scammers Never Give Up

In May 2019, a post on The Hot Wire Times, Gaddafi's Millions, exposed a long-running scam to trick people of their savings. It’s a re-invented chain letter type scam that has had many variations over the years, but unfortunately people still fall for it.

In a nutshell, the scam offers a percentage of some locked up funds that can only be obtained by the scammer, if the unsuspecting victim agrees to launder the funds through a foreign bank account. The catch is that there are ‘expenses’ or ‘fees’ that must first be paid by the victim before the transfer can take place. Initially, the expenses are quite moderate, but demands for additional expenses soon follow. Some victims lose thousands of dollars before facing the embarrassing fact that they have been duped. Many are left penniless.

The scam raises an obvious question for many readers; are people really that gullible? For a few people, the answer is yes. But if only a few people fall for it, why do the scammers stay in the ‘business’? Because the scammers use middlemen who don’t get paid and are themselves victims of the scammers and will be replaced by others as they quit.

Social media is never short of posts offering lucrative employment, working from home with a computer. A typical post will claim, ‘Jane Smith makes $6,000 a day, you can too!’ But the truth is that Jane Smith will be a victim too who will in all probability not be paid a single cent, because 100% of the revenue will go directly to the criminals at the top of the pyramid.

 Some of the Jane Smiths are less than bright. They have yet to learn that there is no free lunch when it comes to getting rich quick on the internet. But the pits of intellectual dimness were reached by the Jane Smith who attempted to post a comment on a blog post that warned readers about the Jane Smiths and their masters. That’s right, her comment was an almost identical repeat of the main body of the post. How dumb was she, or he! Here it is, exactly as it was written:

How is your day? i hope you are fine? i really appreciate your return mail,like a told you in my previous mail that I was born and brought up in Libya
Right now, as i am writing to you, i am the only person alive in my family, and I managed to make my way to this country (Senegal) where i am leaving now as a refugee under the care of a Rev. Father, Peter Vim who is the priest of the ( Saint-Louis Roman Catholic Church (Senegal) here in the camp, he has been very nice to me since I came here but i am not living with him rather i live in the female's hostel because the camp have two hostels one for men the other for women.

Please do not be offended for this message that comes from me please, its just that i don't know what else to do, because my situation here as a refugee is giving me a great concern, therefore, i will like you to consider my situation as an orphan, and be kind with me, as i am putting the whole of my trust on you without fear, though i don't know who you are before, but i believe that with God all things are possible and you can not betray me at the end.

I have pass this information to you because of my difficult situation here in this refugee camp, Its just like one staying in the prison and i hope by Gods grace i will come out here soon.

I don't have any relatives now whom i can go to, all my relatives ran away in the middle of the war the only person i have now is the Rev Fr. Peter vim , who is our guardian.
The Rev father Tel number is (+221 784727863) I will like you call, please tell him that you wants to speak with me Miss. Helena Abdel from Libya he will send for me in the hostel to come and talk with you. Here in this camp I am sending you email through the church office computer at the Rev Farther office. Because As a refugee here we don't have any right or privilege to any thing be it money, phone, computer, or whatever because it is against the law of this country. I want to go back to my studies because I only attended my first year before the tragic incident that lead to me being in this bad situation. I was present when i saw my mother killed with six months pregnant.

Please listen to this --( because it's a secret, even no one knows about it except you and i knows about this),

I have my late father's death certificate here with me, which i will send to you later, because when he was alive he deposited some amount of money in one of the leading banks in Europe which he used my name as the next of kin, the total amount, is $4.9M(Four Million Nine Hundred Thousand Dollars) United States Dollars). So I will like you to help me to transfer this money to your account and from it you can send some money for me to get my traveling documents and air ticket to come over to meet you in your country. I kept this secret to people in the camp here the only person that knows about it is you and me.

For your own information, i want you to view this news information about killing of my late Father, story through BBC WORLD NEWS ( http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-14336122 ) So i will like you to keep it to yourself as secret and don't tell it to anyone because i am afraid of loosing my life and the money if people gets to know about it. Meanwhile i want to return to my religion Islam, because here i am taken care by catholic church refugee.

Remember i am giving you all this information due to the trust i deposed on you. I like honest and understanding people,truthful and people that have vision, hardworking and GOD fearing person. My favorite language is English and i speak English very fluently.

can i trust you as a genuine friend ?

Meanwhile i will like you to call me like i said, i have a lot to tell you..
Have a nice day and think about my condition here

Awaiting to hear from you soonest
Thanks and remain blessed.
Yours.Helena

Here is another plea, with some confusion about the money:

Dearest One,

I am writing this mail with tears and sorrow to seek for your assistance regarding my situation since the death of my parents. My name is Mimi Abdul Fatah Younis Al-Obeidi, 22 years old Female, originated from Benghazi-Libya , North Africa. .My late Father General Abdel Fattah Younes who was shot death by Islamist-linked militia within the anti-Gaddafi forces on 28th July, 2011, the brutal killing of my mother and my only kid sister took place a week after the dead of my father.

I am now writing to seek for your assistance from Ouagadougou, Burkina-Faso where I managed to escaped through the help of the United Nation, and now seeking asylum in Refugee Camp here in Ouagadougou,Burkina-Faso,

Meanwhile, the main reason why I am seeking for your assistance is because of some money my late parent deposited in one of the banks here in Burkina Faso which I am the next of kin. My Father made a fixed deposit of Six Million Eight Hundred Thousand Dollar ($6.8M). I need you to stand as my trustee so that the money will be transferred to you. You will get 30% of the money for your help. more details will be sent to you as soon as i receive your response..

Yours Faithfully,
Ms. Mimi Abdul Fatah Younis Al-Obeidi,

Meanwhile, the assassination victim at the centre of the scam was a real Libyan general who was shot and killed in 2011. Everything else in the scam is pure fiction.