Sunday, March 1, 2020

CORONAVIRUS


Will Coronavirus Covi-19 spell the end of humanity, as some are claiming?

Goodbye to the age of the Yellow Vest protests. The age of the face mask is upon us. Next up will be the age of the rotting corpse. The planet will be littered with dead bodies, each garbed in a less than useless face mask, and there will be no one left to bury the dead. But wait, there may be good news hidden in the bad news, it has been said that maggots are immune to Covid-19. Therefore, if this worst-case scenario plays out in real life (or death), the planet will restart itself with a clean slate, and the last remaining climate alarmists and extinction rebels will be able to celebrate with their last feverish dying gasps.

Meanwhile, on Facebook the Doomsday Group are signing up a million new members every day, and the Flat Earth Society are debating a name change to the Levelled Earth Society. In Washington D.C., Donald Trump continues his campaign for re-election as the last President of the United States, and the eternal fame that will go with it. The world is in a state of lethal turmoil and the bad news is that downing copious cans of Corona Beer will not drown your Coronavirus. This is the virus to end all viruses for the rest of eternity . . .

That’s one view.

History is littered with plagues and pandemics; each having been a large-scale killer of thousands and sometimes millions of unfortunate people. Interestingly, the greatest killers wrought their havoc when there were fewer people available for killing, like the Plague of Justinian in Europe in 541-542 A.D. when up to 50 million died, or 50% of the population. From 1331 to 1353 in Europe, Asia and North Africa somewhere between 75 and 200 million (30-60% of the population) died of the Black Death. In the 18th century, the greatest loss of life with a single infectious outbreak was the Persian Plague of 1772 when two million died. In the 19th century, the Third Cholera Pandemic claimed one million lives in Russia between 1852 and 1860, while another one million died worldwide from the 1889-1890 Influenza Pandemic. Meanwhile, HIV/AIDS has taken 32 million lives since 1960 and continues to kill to this day.
American victims of the 1918 Spanish Flu
in a Kansas hospital

Infectious diseases took a turn for the worse early in the 20th century with the outbreak of Spanish Flu in 1918. By 1920, the disease had claimed up to 100 million lives worldwide. Asian Flu in 1957-58 took 2 million lives worldwide, and Hong Kong Flu claimed one million worldwide in 1968-69. To date, the worst infectious disease outbreak of the 21st century has been the Ebola Epidemic of 2013 to 2016, claiming 11,000 lives in West Africa. An outbreak of cholera in Haiti took 10,000 lives from 2010 to 2017. So far Covid-19 has claimed almost 3,000 lives, has peaked in China where it originated, and will soon peak elsewhere.

Population estimates for ancient history are sketchy at best. For example, while the world was emerging from the Last Glacial Maximum 12,000 years ago and man discovered (or perhaps rediscovered) agriculture, the world population was estimated to be between one and 15 million. Some researchers have estimated an average population of five million with fluctuations of up to plus or minus four million due to frequent famines, wars and pandemics. The population, such as it was, was mostly confined to the tropics and sub-tropics. Life was short and hard, and few people made it to age 20. One positive aspect of life at the time was the generally lower sea level, making migration easier by way of land bridges that went under the waves as the great ice sheets succumbed.

It is believed that population totals surged briefly during the Roman and Medieval Warm periods but slumped again during the Little Ice Age (1500-1850 approximately). However, it wasn’t until modern census methods were adopted about 1700 A.D. that reliable data became available for advanced jurisdictions. The Industrial Revolution, and the lesser revolutions of agriculture, education and medicine, brought prosperity and longer lives for more people, and an exploding population for the world. The one billion population milestone was reached in 1804, two billion in 1927, three billion in 1960, four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999, and seven billion in 2011.

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While the population has exploded, it has not been matched by a similar magnitude increase in pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, compared with earlier times, when there is an infectious outbreak, the death rate is generally lower now, and a larger proportion now make a full recovery. In this regard, Coronavirus Covid-19 may be different. Because it is a new strain of an old common virus, it wasn’t expected, was slow to be recognized for what it was, and how to treat it. The cat was quite literally out of the bag before anyone knew there was a cat in the bag. The cat sprang at the most opportune time. It was winter in the Northern Hemisphere (the time and hemisphere where most outbreaks happen) and the world economy was booming with record numbers moving every which way on business or pleasure. It was inevitable that getting the cat back in the bag, and giving it the obligatory pill, would be no easy task.

According to Wikipedia, Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and death. Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

After a hesitant start by China, the response of governments almost everywhere to this new virus has been exemplary. It was almost as though they were expecting something to happen without knowing exactly what. We’ve never seen such a response before, even in the deadliest earlier outbreaks. The measures put in place so swiftly and decisively will most likely mean that Coronavirus Covid-19 will not have the same effect as the epidemics of 1957, 1918 or the Black Plague, and the hundreds of pandemics throughout history. The rapid mass international travel that is so commonplace today was sure to be the opening for a new pandemic to spread like an international wildfire, but obviously governments have been up to speed on the possibility and have acted accordingly. But now governments and the WHO must be careful not to over-react and cause an economic depression that could kill more people than is could save.

There are already signs that the virus has peaked in China and peaks may soon be reached in other countries. By mid-year the world trend in new cases should be downward, and by this time next year the whole thing could be consigned to history. There will be living victims who will have an economic price to pay in terms of lost business and employment, disrupted travel, and everything else that flows on from that. But if that stems the loss of life, it will be worth it.

Meanwhile, for more than 99% of the population, life will go on as before and there should be no reason for panic buying or heading for the hills and a hermit lifestyle. Face masks need only be worn by those already infected. As with any cold or flu bug, the best course of action is to cover your mouth when coughing, wash and dry your hands thoroughly and frequently, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with your hands.

Finally, celebrate the wonderful life your pioneering ancestors created for you, with a cold Corona Beer, or another drop of your own choosing.


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