CORONAVIRUS

Will Coronavirus Covi-19 spell the end of humanity, as some are claiming?

Goodbye to the age of the Yellow Vest protests. The age of the face mask is upon us. Next up will be the age of the rotting corpse. The planet will be littered with dead bodies, each garbed in a less than useless face mask, and there will be no one left to bury the dead. But wait, there may be good news hidden in the bad news, it has been said that maggots are immune to Covid-19. Therefore, if this worst-case scenario plays out in real life (or death), the planet will restart itself with a clean slate, and the last remaining climate alarmists and extinction rebels will be able to celebrate with their last feverish dying gasps.

Meanwhile, on Facebook the Doomsday Group are signing up a million new members every day, and the Flat Earth Society are debating a name change to the Levelled Earth Society. In Washington D.C., Donald Trump continues his campaign for re-election as the last President of the United States, and the eternal fame that will go with it. The world is in a state of lethal turmoil and the bad news is that downing copious cans of Corona Beer will not drown your Coronavirus. This is the virus to end all viruses for the rest of eternity . . .

That’s one view.

History is littered with plagues and pandemics; each having been a large-scale killer of thousands and sometimes millions of unfortunate people. Interestingly, the greatest killers wrought their havoc when there were fewer people available for killing, like the Plague of Justinian in Europe in 541-542 A.D. when up to 50 million died, or 50% of the population. From 1331 to 1353 in Europe, Asia and North Africa somewhere between 75 and 200 million (30-60% of the population) died of the Black Death. In the 18^th century, the greatest loss of life with a single infectious outbreak was the Persian Plague of 1772 when two million died. In the 19^th century, the Third Cholera Pandemic claimed one million lives in Russia between 1852 and 1860, while another one million died worldwide from the 1889-1890 Influenza Pandemic. Meanwhile, HIV/AIDS has taken 32 million lives since 1960 and continues to kill to this day.

American victims of the 1918 Spanish Flu
in a Kansas hospital

Infectious diseases took a turn for the worse early in the 20^th century with the outbreak of Spanish Flu in 1918. By 1920, the disease had claimed up to 100 million lives worldwide. Asian Flu in 1957-58 took 2 million lives worldwide, and Hong Kong Flu claimed one million worldwide in 1968-69. To date, the worst infectious disease outbreak of the 21^st century has been the Ebola Epidemic of 2013 to 2016, claiming 11,000 lives in West Africa. An outbreak of cholera in Haiti took 10,000 lives from 2010 to 2017. So far Covid-19 has claimed almost 3,000 lives, has peaked in China where it originated, and will soon peak elsewhere.

Population estimates for ancient history are sketchy at best. For example, while the world was emerging from the Last Glacial Maximum 12,000 years ago and man discovered (or perhaps rediscovered) agriculture, the world population was estimated to be between one and 15 million. Some researchers have estimated an average population of five million with fluctuations of up to plus or minus four million due to frequent famines, wars and pandemics. The population, such as it was, was mostly confined to the tropics and sub-tropics. Life was short and hard, and few people made it to age 20. One positive aspect of life at the time was the generally lower sea level, making migration easier by way of land bridges that went under the waves as the great ice sheets succumbed.

It is believed that population totals surged briefly during the Roman and Medieval Warm periods but slumped again during the Little Ice Age (1500-1850 approximately). However, it wasn’t until modern census methods were adopted about 1700 A.D. that reliable data became available for advanced jurisdictions. The Industrial Revolution, and the lesser revolutions of agriculture, education and medicine, brought prosperity and longer lives for more people, and an exploding population for the world. The one billion population milestone was reached in 1804, two billion in 1927, three billion in 1960, four billion in 1974, five billion in 1987, six billion in 1999, and seven billion in 2011.

See also:

Things to Fear in the Future
Overpopulation

Media Bias and Fake News

While the population has exploded, it has not been matched by a similar magnitude increase in pandemics and epidemics. Moreover, compared with earlier times, when there is an infectious outbreak, the death rate is generally lower now, and a larger proportion now make a full recovery. In this regard, Coronavirus Covid-19 may be different. Because it is a new strain of an old common virus, it wasn’t expected, was slow to be recognized for what it was, and how to treat it. The cat was quite literally out of the bag before anyone knew there was a cat in the bag. The cat sprang at the most opportune time. It was winter in the Northern Hemisphere (the time and hemisphere where most outbreaks happen) and the world economy was booming with record numbers moving every which way on business or pleasure. It was inevitable that getting the cat back in the bag, and giving it the obligatory pill, would be no easy task.

According to Wikipedia, Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses that cause illness ranging from the common cold to more severe diseases such as Middle East Respiratory Syndrome and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV). A novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a new strain that has not been previously identified in humans. Coronaviruses are zoonotic, meaning they are transmitted between animals and people. Several known coronaviruses are circulating in animals that have not yet infected humans. Common signs of infection include respiratory symptoms, fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties. In more severe cases, infection can cause pneumonia, severe acute respiratory syndrome, kidney failure and death. Standard recommendations to prevent infection spread include regular hand washing, covering mouth and nose when coughing and sneezing, thoroughly cooking meat and eggs. Avoid close contact with anyone showing symptoms of respiratory illness such as coughing and sneezing.

After a hesitant start by China, the response of governments almost everywhere to this new virus has been exemplary. It was almost as though they were expecting something to happen without knowing exactly what. We’ve never seen such a response before, even in the deadliest earlier outbreaks. The measures put in place so swiftly and decisively will most likely mean that Coronavirus Covid-19 will not have the same effect as the epidemics of 1957, 1918 or the Black Plague, and the hundreds of pandemics throughout history. The rapid mass international travel that is so commonplace today was sure to be the opening for a new pandemic to spread like an international wildfire, but obviously governments have been up to speed on the possibility and have acted accordingly. But now governments and the WHO must be careful not to over-react and cause an economic depression that could kill more people than is could save.

There are already signs that the virus has peaked in China and peaks may soon be reached in other countries. By mid-year the world trend in new cases should be downward, and by this time next year the whole thing could be consigned to history. There will be living victims who will have an economic price to pay in terms of lost business and employment, disrupted travel, and everything else that flows on from that. But if that stems the loss of life, it will be worth it.

Meanwhile, for more than 99% of the population, life will go on as before and there should be no reason for panic buying or heading for the hills and a hermit lifestyle. Face masks need only be worn by those already infected. As with any cold or flu bug, the best course of action is to cover your mouth when coughing, wash and dry your hands thoroughly and frequently, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth with your hands.

Finally, celebrate the wonderful life your pioneering ancestors created for you, with a cold Corona Beer, or another drop of your own choosing.

KOBE BRYANT CRASH

Kobe Bryant Joins a Long List of Celebrity Death Flights

They may all have one shocking thing in common?

(CNN)In his final transmission, the pilot of a helicopter that crashed, killing nine people including NBA legend Kobe Bryant, told air traffic control he was climbing to avoid a cloud layer, the National Transportation Safety Board said Monday.

When air traffic control asked the pilot what he planned to do, there was no reply, NTSB board member Jennifer Homendy told reporters. The last radar contact was around 9:45 a.m. (12:45 p.m. ET) Sunday, she said.

Radar data indicated the helicopter climbed 2,300 feet and began a left descending turn, she said.

Here is a post from THE HOT WIRE TIMES from 7 February 2015:

INSTRUMENT FLYING FOR DUMMIES

Why pilots fly on instruments instead of looking out the window

Most people believe that flying an aircraft in cloud is really not much different to flying in clear air, after all they must still know which way they are going, which is up and which is down, whether they are turning or flying straight, climbing or descending. It should all be easy. If they can’t see, there is nothing to stop them going by feel. Okay, they may find it a little hard to locate a destination airport but getting to the general vicinity should be a piece of cake. What could possibly go wrong? 

Unfortunately, many low-time private pilots also believe this dangerous fallacy. During the earliest years of aviation, accidents were common. Structural failure and loss of control was the most common cause, but as aircraft design, performance, and pilot training improved, another hazard presented itself. Pilots flying in reduced visibility often encountered a new kind of hazard that they were untrained and unprepared for. It was called spatial disorientation.

Spatial disorientation is a sneaky but rapid killer. Many victims strike the ground at high speed before they even realise there is a problem. Others fight for control, but rely on their senses or feelings, rather than their instruments for situational awareness. Spatial disorientation can take several forms. Typically, a pilot who is untrained for instrument flying, will feel a slight rotation about one of the three axis of his machine; he will feel pitch, roll or yaw. So, he will make a small correction to bring it back on even keel, but that will be when his troubles may really begin. He may over-correct, or under-correct. For example, if he detects a slight turn to the right, he will apply opposite control (the same inputs for starting a left turn), but as the rate of turn decreases it will already feel as though he has started a turn in the opposite direction and as there are no external reference points to tell him otherwise, he will believe his feelings.

But that situation is only the beginning of the pilot’s problems because turning an aircraft, in terms of dynamics, is not a simple matter. It involves rotation around all three axis. It rolls, pitches and yaws all in the same movement and the pilot must control all three simultaneously. If he fails to do that accurately a fourth dimension immediately comes into play and that dimension is airspeed. So now the pilot has four things to control and the minor disturbance (or misconception) that started with a small correction on the controls has quickly become a complicated but crucial situation. The pilot’s actions in the next few seconds will determine whether he lives or dies. Most modern aircraft can fly straight and level for a time without any input from the pilot. They are inherently stable, but only until they start to turn. Left to its own devices the angle of bank will get progressively steeper, the radius of turn will tighten and the nose will drop allowing the airspeed to increase. Within a few seconds, perhaps a minute or two at the most, the gentle turn will have developed into what is commonly known as a graveyard spiral. The only uncertainty with a graveyard spiral is the question of which will come first – structural failure, or impact with the ground.

 The standard IFR panel for many years was known as The Six Pack. From L to R, top to bottom, they

                       were the Airspeed Indicator, Artificial Horizon, Altimeter, Turn & Bank Indicator, Gyro Compass
                                                                             and Vertical Speed Indicator

The pilot’s instruments will tell him early in the event exactly what is happening, but if he doesn’t understand them, they will be of little use. Before undergoing thorough instrument flight training all pilots believe their bodily senses, just as we do all day every day on the ground when we have external reference points. He will also believe the forces on the seat of his pants and the balance mechanisms in our ears. That’s the natural thing to do. But instrument flying is not natural. Without training, understanding and self-discipline, an untrained pilot in cloud or fog, will fare no better than a scared cat on a multi-lane, busy highway. Control and panic do not belong together.

Flight safety started to improve after research and development work by the legendary American pilot, Jimmy Doolittle. In 1929, Doolittle made the first successful take-off, circuit and landing, flying solely by reference to instruments. His developments included the artificial horizon and the gyro compass. Within a few years most airline and military flying was conducted using Instrument Flight Rules and aviation became safer.

When this blogger started flying in 1954 there was a rule that pilots who were not instrument rated, or not flying on an IFR (Instrument Flight Rules) flight plan had to stay at least 500 feet vertically and 2,000 feet horizontally from cloud. They were limited to VFR (Visual Flight Rules) and they operated in airspace away from IFR controlled airspace. It was a sound rule. But many pilots, deliberately or accidentally, strayed from the rule, and many paid with their lives.  

But even today, many people including some pilots, believe that their natural senses will be all they need to survive in cloud or fog. When that thinking is combined with a poor understanding of the weather and visibility along the route, rugged terrain and over-confidence, accidents are bound to happen. In the worst-case scenario, marginal weather can change to no-go weather, a pilot can be caught en route with nowhere to go and may be forced to land away from an airport. Visual flying by the inexperienced can be hazardous even when the intentions are good. Even now 40% of all general aviation accidents can be attributed to loss of control due to spatial disorientation.

There is a long list of celebrity visual pilots and passengers who died trusting their senses instead of getting the correct training and trusting their instruments.

Singers Patsy Cline and Jim Reeves had more than singing in common. Cline’s pilot and Reeves were trained by the same flight instructor. Neither pilot was instrument rated but both died while attempting to fly in instrument conditions. Buddy Holly died when his non-instrument rated charter pilot took-off into a snowstorm at night. Boxer Rocky Marciano died in a Cessna 172 flown in poor visibility by a pilot who was not instrument rated. More recently, John F. Kennedy Jnr died when he lost control of his aircraft during a flight over water on a dark night. He was not instrument rated.

After I had been flying for several years I undertook the training for an instrument rating, including cross-country navigation, various instrument approaches and recovery from unusual situations, not so that I could file an IFR flight plan and cruise above the clouds, but just for insurance against my own errors of judgement while flying VFR. I believe every pilot should be trained to IFR standard.

Many of the spatial disorientation accidents happen in aircraft fully equipped for instrument flying, but to pilots who are not instrument trained. Some of them seem to believe that having the instruments is more important than the training, but they continue to believe their natural instincts instead of the instruments and continue to die with only seconds warning.