Thursday, July 3, 2014

NEW ZEALAND ROAD SAFETY

Sharing the road downunder

New Zealand’s extra short passing lanes, usually just one kilometre long, are death traps.

Drivers get plenty of warning that passing lanes are coming up with advance signs at two kilometres, one kilometre, 400 metres and finally a sign to keep left unless passing. But at the death-end of the passing lane there is just one small sign showing the lanes merging in 200 metres, and that sign could easily be obscured from overtaking traffic by the traffic keeping left. (Readers from most countries should note that in New Zealand we drive on the left and have the steering wheel on the right, and there is no plan to come into line with the rest of the world)

Dangerous features of the passing lanes include the fact that the lanes merge after exactly one kilometre regardless of visibility. It could be on a crest of a hill or on a blind  curve and it matters not to the road engineers or the source of the funds. The money runs out after one kilometre, live or die.
For many drivers one kilometre is long enough to start a race, but not long enough to finish the race. The death-end works like a concertina where the music comes from screeching rubber, crushing metal and mortal screams. But in spite of close shaves by the minute, ignorance continues to dictate that speed should have right of way over caution and overtaking is more important than merging.

In her article Sharing the Road, Trena Marshall has touched on two topics that are dear to my heart; road safety and motor caravans.

I fully endorse her comments about freedom campers who don’t play the game with toilet habits. It may be time to outlaw rental motor-homes that are not fully self-contained, or alternately require the renting companies to prominently display the rules and the consequences inside their vehicles.

But, having said that, perhaps it is time also for central and/or local government to start providing more public facilities along tourist routes. Other developed countries don’t have the problems that we do because they appreciate the benefits that tourism spending has on the economy and employment, and cater accordingly for their visitors.
Here is Trena Marshall’s article:
Freedom camping has endured some blight but it comprises two distinct groups.

There are those who hire a van set up as a camper. It will have a bed and cooking facilities but no toilet – and some tourists, considering it is all-natural anyway, head for the bushes.
Then there are those who use public toilets, or drive or tow self-contained vehicles with cassette toilets on board and willingly use dump stations.
The excellent, professional New Zealand Motor Caravan Association (NZMCA) – membership now nearly 54,000 individuals – publishes a monthly magazine as well as a biennial Travel Directory bible which sets out information and GPS co-ordinates about where dump stations are situated, as well as giving detailed maps and listings of camping grounds, private park-over properties, free parking, Department of Conservation camps, the facilities provided at each, and much more. 

It has also been going into bat to educate councils as they contemplate overly restrictive freedom camping bylaws, brought about because of those irresponsible enough not to use toilet facilities – and because the Government’s Freedom Camping Act 2011 did not distinguish between certified self-contained vehicles and non-self-contained.
Some towns are happy to take on the label motor home friendly – a wise move.
The NZMCA rallies can generate a great deal of money to local economies. The 2013 NZMCA National Easter Rally was held at New Plymouth.
The event poured $1.6 million into the region. Latest figures on the Easter rally held in Mosgiel have yet to come in.
Skilled association members can issue self-containment certificates after a thorough check and other bonuses are discounts, for instance on the Bluebridge ferry crossing. I arranged my insurance, signed up to the association, and set out. 

I thought towing a caravan would be like towing the trailer – I am an expert at that after growing up in a farmyard. Abe – my caravan – would follow like the waking wisps of a dream. Lord knows, he was snuggled up close enough behind the car.
Except that it wasn’t easy. For some reason, we struggled up the hills. When I came across another vintage caravan parked in a rest area, of course I pulled in for a chat.
We left together but their little car and quaint Lilliput caravan were soon miles ahead, going at a jaunty pace up the hills while I seemed to get slower and slower.
It wasn’t until I reached Kaikoura, alerted by squealing brakes, that I found the handbrake on the caravan needed adjusting – it was half on.
If driving an automatic, as I was, make sure it’s awash with fresh fluid: oil and transmission. Changing the latter every 40,000km would be advisable the Honda dealership told me.
Back on the road, I tried to be a courteous driver. So intensely did I concentrate on the rear vision mirror as well as the road up front that I nearly came back with one eye higher than the other. As soon as I saw traffic behind, I searched for a place to pull over to the left a bit and let it pass.
The trouble is, the courtesy wasn’t a two-way street, and my pulling over to the left where a wider stretch of tarmac allowed became a repeated exercise in fright as my bay ran out and the cars behind poured on the power, arrows determined to make it through – and too bad about the car and caravan with nowhere to go any more.
Running out of road has a way of wearing on the nerves so after a few hundred kilometres of this I changed from pulling left as soon as possible the second I reached a passing lane.
Then I would let out a breath, slow down, and let them go.
Only passing lanes also run out. That last little bit of gap became the hell-bent goal for yet one more car, and my hair would start to frizz again.
Some encouragement came during a phone call from Paul Cooper, in Pukekohe, who did the restoration work on Abe. He wondered how I was faring on my first long-range trip: “Remember you have as much right to be on the road as anyone else,” he said.
It wasn’t all hard work. At times, I forgot Abe was there. Backing was no problem whatsoever. I could turn that caravan in a tiny space if I had to. The three-point turn stretched a bit but I could do it.
Abe is now resting up in my neighbour’s paddock. I am going to get back into the saddle again soon for a weekend trip.
That beautiful caravan deserves to be under cover though so if any Waikato farmer out there has an empty bay in a barn, please phone (07) 825 8191.

More in Country Wide: http://agrihq.co.nz/country-wide/

Drive safely, or stay home with a good book



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Friday, June 27, 2014

THE POLITICS OF IMMIGRATION

They are the butt of jokes, sick emails and discrimination. But immigrants build nations and make everyone better off

Below is a list of questions that are answered in a new book, The Politics of Immigration by Jane Guskin and David L. Wilson and available from Amazon














There is nothing new about discrimination against immigrants. It has been happening since the beginning of time, and it happens all over the world. Some people become so paranoid about immigrants they organize strikes and political campaigns, and actively try to shut immigrants out of their local community.
But it is all based on false assumptions, misinformation, prejudice and ignorance. Every successful economy and every country with a high standard of living could not have achieved what they have without immigration.
There is one thing that is worse that an expanding population and that can be found in the country, region, city or town that is losing population. That always leads to unemployment, business failure, increasing crime and poverty – the very situation that exists in many countries that immigrants leave behind in their search for a better life.
The Politics of Immigration is available from Amazon: Amazon.com

How immigrants made Australia great



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Monday, June 23, 2014

CLIMATE VOTER

Climate Voters suffering from a bad case of sunstroke
Members of Parliament were asked to leave a public launch meeting of Climate Voter in Auckland, New Zealand yesterday.
The world would be capable of
producing more food, if this
was the average world temperature
This raises the immediate question of how denying entry to the people most able to help a cause, will help that cause. Is this a case of political naivety taken to the extreme? It makes me think that climate change is certainly real, but is localized to the area of political wetness behind Climate Voter ears.
When the un-elected are able to eject the elected, democracy is under threat. Is is just a short step from there to revolution, anarchy, chaos, economic collapse, wholesale poverty and all out war. Then there will be some heat.
The Climate Voters appear to believe in some form of democracy, otherwise they probably would not have ‘Voter’ as part of their name. But they claim that the elected representatives have let them down. Well, that is highly debatable. Many voters will say that Parliament has gone too far on climate change issues.
Perhaps a balanced approach does not suit the Climate Voters. Yesterday they signed up 300 members in 30 minutes and now, as New Zealand’s newest minority, they want everything done 100% their way. To them, the majority should no longer have a say.
Tornadoes did not
start with the twentieth
century
I’m not surprised to see Greenpeace associating themselves with Climate Voter. It all sounds like good old-fashioned green policy. But when they have recovered from their sunstroke they may also come to understand that ‘green’ also means something that has not arrived in perfect condition as well as immature, unskilled, lacking sound judgment, inexperienced, gullible, raw and unrefined.
If the world is getting warmer then a remedy may well found by Climate Voters all taking a quiet lie down with a cup of iced tea.





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Sunday, June 15, 2014

MALAYSIA AIRLINES MH 370

Missing Malaysia Airlines flight MH370: The 13 theories that could explain where the plane is - and what happened to it


With no trace of the missing Boeing 777 in the "ping" search area, conspiracy theorists have tried to fill in the gaps of what we know
Officials today confirmed what we have feared for some time - that a relatively tiny search zone in the southern Indian Ocean is not the final resting place of Malaysia Airlines flight MH370.
From an underwater mission covering 850 sq km (320 sq mile) where acoustic "pings" were heard, the area being searched has now been extended to around a 60,000 sq km (23,100 sq mile) zone based on satellite data which remains disputed in some quarters.
The Australia-led search control team estimate it could be August - next year - before this region has been covered, and hopes of finding the Boeing 777's flight recorders are becoming increasingly dim.
With so much uncertainty surrounding the circumstances of MH370's bizarre disappearance, it has become rich territory for aviation experts, bloggers and conspiracy theorists alike.
Here we round up 13 of the most prominent theories as to where the plane ended up, and what went wrong in the first place.
Shot down in a military training exercise
While the Australian officials leading the search for MH370 say they remain “absolutely convinced” it ended up in the southern Indian Ocean, some passengers’ families – and theorists – distrust the unprecedented satellite data analysis involved.
Among those who support this view are the British journalist and author Nigel Cawthorne, who has controversially already published the first book on the plane’s disappearance.
At the time there was a series of war games taking place in the South China Sea involving Thailand, the US and personnel from China, Japan, Indonesia and others, and Cawthorne has linked this to Mr McKay’s claims to have seen a burning plane going down in the Gulf of Thailand.
Flown north and shot down deliberately, prompting cover-up
At a stage in the investigation when it was believed the plane could have flown for some time from where it disappeared along either a northern or southern corridor, many posted on forums suggesting that if it had been the former we would never hear about what happened.
Some still support this view, and former RAF navigator Sean Maffett told the BBC that after 9/11, any unidentified airliner entering the airspace of another country would lead to fighter jets being scrambled.
“If the plane is in the northern arc it could easily have been shot down,” he said. This theory also involves a national – or possibly international – cover-up, based on the premise that no country would want to admit to shooting down an airliner full of passengers from all over the world.
Flown north in the ‘shadow’ of another plane
Another theory suggests that instead of flying south, the plane flew north in the “shadow” of another airliner around half an hour to an hour after dropping off civilian radar.
The aviation blogger Keith Ledgerwood argued that MH370 and Singapore Airlines flight 68 were in the same vicinity at the time, and said: “It became apparent as I inspected SIA68's flight path history that MH370 had manoeuvred itself directly behind SIA68 at approximately 18:00UTC and over the next 15 minutes had been following SIA68.”
By flying a short distance behind and most likely a little above the altitude of SIA68, also a Boeing 777, Ledgerwood said that it would be able to appear as a single blip on radar screens.
Experts have said that the idea sounds “feasible”, and that even if higher-resolution military radar was monitoring SIA68 operators might have dismissed the fact that there were two objects as an technical glitch or echo.
Tried to land on a desert island beach
After reports that the plane had turned left shortly following its disappearance from civilian radar screens, speculation grew that it could have landed on a remote beach somewhere like the Andaman Islands, which lie between Indonesia and the coast of Thailand.
Though CNN reported that locals dismissed the idea a Boeing 777 could land on an airstrip there undetected, the archipelago consists of hundreds of remote islands with some long stretches of sand.
Former BA pilot Steve Buzdygan said it would be difficult – but not impossible – to bring a 777 down on a long deserted beach.
Landed at a US military base
One of the more outlandish conspiracy theories that has gained some traction online is the idea that MH370 could have been “captured” and flown to a military base on the UK-owned tropical atoll of Diego Garcia, in the middle of the Indian Ocean.
Such is the strength of belief in this theory that the US government has been forced to issue a denial. A spokesperson for the US embassy in Malaysia told the local Star newspaper that there was “no indication that MH370 flew anywhere near the Maldives or Diego Garcia”. “MH370 did not land in Diego Garcia,” he added.
Headed for a remote airport in Langkawi, Malaysia
One theory, put forward by another aviation blogger named Chris Goodfellow, has it that the sudden left turn came after major catastrophe knocked out a range of the plane’s electronics, from transponders to communications equipment.
In this scenario and in the middle of the night, Goodfellow argued, the pilot would redirect towards the nearest safe airport.
“This pilot did all the right things,” he said. “Actually he was taking a direct route to Palau Langkawi, a 13,000ft (4,000m) strip with an approach over water at night with no obstacles. He did not turn back to Kuala Lumpur because he knew he had 8,000ft ridges to cross. He knew the terrain was friendlier towards Langkawi and also a shorter distance.”
This theory assumes that the plane was in fact controlled manually once it disappeared – and that it did not make it to Langkawi.
A fire throughout the plane
Many theories accept that the Inmarsat satellite analysis is accurate – that the plane headed south into the Indian Ocean and flew on for hours before a final, partial “handshake” in a remote location thousands of miles off the west coast of Australia.
One suggestion is that a fire broke out, not just in the cockpit but throughout the interior of the plane. The implication is that this resulted in the attempt to turn back, after which the fire killed those on board.
This theory would then have it that the fire went out before damaging the exterior of the plane, which flew on autopilot until its fuel ran out.
Yet such a fire would be expected to spread with at least some warning – and that surely would have given the pilots time to issue a mayday distress signal.
An explosion in the cockpit
The theory of a sudden explosion within the cockpit before the turn left could explain why there was no attempt to signal for help.
Since 9/11 cockpits doors have been fortified to become extremely difficult to bypass, and such a sudden incident could perhaps have incapacitated both pilots while keeping out the rest of the crew.
This explanation does not seem to tally with the claims of some Malaysian officials, however, that the change in direction was the result of “seven or eight keystrokes into a computer on a knee-high pedestal between the captain and the first officer”.
A struggle at altitude
Though Malaysian officials believe that the plane was deliberately diverted, and that its communications systems were turned off one after the other, a detailed background check into all 227 passengers has cleared all of suspicion.
If, however, we do accept that the plane was the subject of a passenger hijacking, it remains to be explained why the hijackers did not try to do more than fly the plane into the middle of the southern Indian Ocean.
Angus Houston is leading the search for missing Malaysian aircraft One theory suggests that there was some kind of struggle for control of the plane that ultimately ended with mutual destruction.
Further analysis of data by Malaysian officials suggests that the plane was flown erratically once it left civilian radar, climbing to 45,000ft before dropping very low. Buzdygan told the BBC he would resort to this sort of flying if faced with would-be hijackers. “I’d try to disorientate and confuse the hijackers by throwing them around,” he said.
A botched hijack attempt
The climb to 45,000ft could also have been carried out by the hijackers once they had taken control – in a bid to kill the passengers on board.
At such an altitude it could be possible to depressurise the cabin, causing oxygen supplies to be deployed. These run out after 12-15 minutes and, if those flying the plane had access to another oxygen supply, could have been an attempt to prevent anyone intervening.
Under this theory the suggestion is clearly that the attempt failed, killing the hijackers as well.
Pilot suicide
As part of the ongoing criminal investigation in Malaysia, police are looking into the state of mind and possible motives of the captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and co-pilot Fariq Abdul Hamid.
The Malaysian police chief Khalid Abu Bakar has said that “all possibilities” will be looked into, and there have been reports that Shah was going through a difficult marriage break-up.
Hugh Dunleavy, the commercial director of Malaysia Airlines, described Shah as a seasoned pilot with an excellent record.
“There have been absolutely no implications that we are aware of that there was anything untoward in either his behaviour or attitude,” he told Reuters. “We have no reason to believe that there was anything, any actions, internally by the crew that caused the disappearance of this aircraft.”
Sabotage – for a life insurance scam or corporate attack
One of the other strands of the criminal investigation regards whether the plane was subject to some form of sabotage – either as part of a life insurance scam or over industrial espionage.
Bakar said that when passengers and crew were being investigated, police were looking for “Maybe somebody on the flight has bought a huge sum of insurance, who wants family to gain from it or somebody who has owed somebody so much money, you know, we are looking at all possibilities.”
There were also 20 employees of the US silicon chip company Freescale Semiconductor on board the plane at the time, and a retired Delta Airlines pilot has suggested the plane’s disappearance was an attempt to steal technology the engineers had applied – but not yet received – a patent for.
A CIA cover-up
Finally, the former prime minister of Malaysia Mahathir Mohamad has waded in with his own theory – suggesting that, one way or another, the CIA is definitely hiding something.
In a blog entry posted on 18 May entitled ‘Boeing Technology – What goes up must come down’, Dr Mahathir Mohamad makes ten claims including that the plane was taken over remotely by officials working for Boeing and the CIA.
Malaysian Prime Minister Dr. Mahathir Mohamad (L) shakes hands with UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan (R) before their meeting in Annan's office at the UN in New York 25 September, 2003. “The plane is somewhere, maybe without MAS markings,” reads Dr Mohamad’s post on chedet.
“Someone is hiding something. It is not fair that MAS and Malaysia should take the blame,” 88-year-old Dr Mahathir, who was Malaysia's prime minister between 1981 and 2003, alleges.
“Airplanes don’t just disappear,” he said, concluding: “For some reason the media will not print anything that involves Boeing or the CIA. I hope my readers will read this.”
Boeing have denied Dr Mohamed’s theory.

Peter’s Piece

There’s some pretty wild speculation above, but the theorists (conspiracy and otherwise) will try to justify their claims with, “Airliners don’t just vanish without trace.”

Wrong!

Airliners from time to time do vanish without trace.. See my post from 31 May 2014: The Search for MH370 http://peterblakeboroughsblog.blogspot.co.nz/2014/05/the-search-for-mh-370.html However, MH370 was the largest civil aircraft to vanish to date and it was the first disappearance involving more that 200 passengers and crew.

So what really is the most likely scenario, if one puts aside some of the illogical and fanatical theories above?


I support the scenario presented by Chris Goodfellow as the most likely course of events and I have developed his theory with a simulation exercise of the MH 370 flight path. You can read about this exercise in ‘What Happened to MH370’ by going to this post from 29 March 2014: http://peterblakeboroughsblog.blogspot.co.nz/2014/03/missing-flight-mh-370.html

Commercial aviation is a very safe business these days, but not perfect. Although it is now looking less likely, if the Flight Data Recorder is recovered, my belief is that it will indicate another accident.

But now that the conspiracy, cover-up and terrorist proponents are in full flight, they will never be silenced, regardless of conclusive evidence to disprove their version of events. In the end, they will only believe what they want to believe.

People who genuinely want the truth should let the authorities do their work without the pressure and hype and accusations that we have been witnessing. That could be detrimental to the final outcome. Air accident investigators are very thorough and dedicated people and they should be allowed to continue their investigations without the distraction of sideshows and hysteria.




BEYOND THE SEAS

This is my latest historical novel  Beyond the Seas When twelve-year-old orphan Nathaniel Asker is shipped from the back alleys of London to...