WHAT HAPPENED TO MH 370

The likely B-777 scenarios are narrowing down to just one

When the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 vanished almost a month ago speculation was rife about its fate: Suicide terrorism, criminal acts by passengers or crew, hostage taking, catastrophic structural failure (something that has never happened to the 777 in its 20 year history) were all on the table.

Although widely criticized as incompetent and dishonest, the authorities were wise to play their cards slowly while some form of criminality was considered highly likely. To do otherwise may have played right into the hands of those responsible. But the likelihood of criminal interference, or criminal actions by the pilots, are now receding.

Much news media mileage has been made of the captain’s flight simulator, but lots of pilots have their own simulator and many former pilots regularly ‘fly’ on a simulator. In my own case I’ve spent many hours on various Boeings including the 777. It’s not uncommon to indulge in flight activities that would be most unwise in the real aircraft. For example I sometimes simulate returning to the airport after all power is suddenly lost during climb out at 15,000 to 20,000 feet. Large jets are capable of gliding much better than many people would imagine.

Simulators, airline and private, have have done a lot to make flying safer. They keep pilots ahead of the game, and it’s my belief that the Malaysian pilots were right up with the game until fate took a hand. Every pilot worthy of the title will always fly with an instant action plan in mind to cover every possible emergency.

In the flight plan there may be only one alternate airport for diversion in the event that the destination cannot be used. But every minute of the flight the crew will always know the location of the nearest suitable landing place, and in a life and death emergency turning toward that airport will be the first priority.

We know now that shortly after the last communication the aircraft suddenly turned from a northerly heading to a south westerly heading on a course that would take it into the southern 

Available from Amazon or Smashwords

Indian Ocean. But that heading also pointed the aircraft to a 13,000 foot runway in Malaysia that was closer than the departure airport.

The next actions should have been to start the descent and transmit a distress call. The rule is Aviate Navigate and Communicate, in that order. The autopilot would have been used to turn the aircraft onto the new heading and the altitude bug may have been turned off while the pilots selected a new flight level and rate of descent. But programming the autopilot may have been interrupted when the pilots were suddenly incapacitated.

The likely culprit must be decompression, poisonous fumes of some kind; a smoldering tire, or fumes from the consignment of troublesome batteries that were in the cargo hold. The fumes from those batteries can kill within 10 seconds.

So we have a situation where the aircraft is trimmed for the turn (slightly nose up) and is being flown partly manually and partly by autopilot. If the pilots are unconscious at the completion of the turn the aircraft will climb. This may explain why it climbed 10,000 feet above its assigned altitude. At 45,000 feet the 777 would be struggling to fly and left to its own devices the nose would drop quite steeply. As it gained airspeed again it would level off and start another climb. This may explain the sighting of a jet airliner flying low and fast over the Malaysian Peninsula around the time that MH 370 would have been crossing.

The process may have taken several oscillations before normal flight resumed on the new selected heading, possibly with the altitude increasing slowly as the fuel load burned off. It all depends on the actual settings for the autopilot; heading we can be fairly certain of, but airspeed, altitude and power settings will only ultimately be revealed when the black box is recovered. It is possible that the airspeed at the top of the climb may have been very close to the minimum airspeed to remain airborne, or close to the point of stall. 

When the aircraft ran out of fuel it is likely that one engine failed before the other and the asymmetric thrust at the low air speed would probably disengage the autopilot completely. The remaining engine would wind the aircraft into a graveyard spiral with the airspeed then increasing very rapidly.

If the last engine failed a few seconds after the first it would make little difference. Once in the spiral without a conscious pilot at the controls the aircraft would in all probability disintegrate before hitting the sea.

In aviation anything is possible once. In most other fields of endeavor the same mistakes can happen over and over again, but aviation is different. Aviation learns from its mistakes. That is why flying is safe.

But that is no consolation for the victims and their loved ones. However, if my scenario is the correct one, then the suffering was probably very brief.

UPDATE
30th July 2015

Wreckage, possibly from MH370, has been found washed up on Reunion Island in the western Indian Ocean, several thousand kilometres from the search area south west of Perth in Western Australia.

So, was the search being conducted in the wrong place? Possibly not. A study of the ocean currents tends to confirm that wreckage from the search area could indeed be carried on a circuitous route north, west and then south to the area of the find.

Indian Ocean currents/Wikipedia

If the wreckage found is confirmed as coming from MH370 then is can be expected that other wreckage may be scattered over a wide area of the ocean, the drift depending on shape and weight of individual items. For the flaperon to detach from the aircraft, the way it must have, indicates that there may be dozens, perhaps hundreds, of small pieces of wreckage, indicating a possible break-up in the air, possibly in a graveyard spiral after fuel exhaustion. 

This must be regarded as the most significant clue so far in the search for the missing airliner, and those on board.

BAD FOOD

A circulating email written by an anonymous racist The email below arrived in my inbox this morning and it is reproduced below exactly as it was written. I like to do a little editing and general tidying up on these to make them more readable. But this one is so poorly written and formatted that it would really require complete re-writing, and I don’t think it’s worth the effort.  My comments are in red. This was shown on “60 Minutes” a few weeks ago. Disgusting! (Where is the precise reference to the program date and the journalists involved?) Starkist Tuna is now owned by Korea, and is in big conflict with the U.S. concerning quality, safety,and records, which Korea refuses to provide.  (Yes, Dongwon Industries in South Korea and the so-called big dispute was resolved in 2011. A cannery in American Samoa failed an inspection by the FDA but has since been cleared.) There have been several articles on Google about this, and even one that was defending the eating of tilapia said to avoid the fish that came from China ..  Albertson's 4-day special of 4 bags of frozen tilapia for the price of one.  Sure enough, on the top of the bags, it read "farm raised", and on the bottom in small print it said, "China ". Read all the way down...  (I’m always alarmed by this demand.) Recently (Exactly when, please.) a Food inspector (Name the inspector.) on TV ( Which TV?) said he had lived overseas and he had seen the filthy conditions their foods are raised and processed in. (Specifics, please.) It is enough to make you throw up.  Some foreign workers have to wear masks as they work in these places, because the food is so rotten and filthy, it makes them want to throw up. (Again, specifics, please.) Many of their Fish on Fish Farms are fed Raw sewage daily.  (Prove it!) He said he has seen so much filth throughout their food growing and processing that he would "never" eat any of it.  They raise this filth , put some food coloring and some flavorings on it, then they ship it to the USA & Canada for YOU to consume and feed to YOUR families.  They have no Food & Safety Inspectors. They ship it to you to buy and poison your families and friends. (Food products cannot be imported into the US or Canada without going through inspection processes. The above statement is false and racially inflammatory.) Imported food we eat and the junk we buy:  Green Giant frozen vegetables are from China , and so are most of Europe 's Best. Arctic Gardens are Okay.   So is Birdseye. Never buy the grocery store garlic unless it is clearly marked from USA or Canada , the other stuff is grown in people poop (even worse than chicken poop). China is the largest producer of garlic in the world U.S. is next. Buy only local honey, much honey is shipped in huge containers from China and re-packed here. Cold-FX is grown and packed in China and is full of fecal bacteria.  Doesn't work anyway, big scam.  If the country of origin is not clearly marked beware. If produce, ask an employee. Watch out for packages which state "prepared for", "packed by" or "imported by".  I don't understand the lack of mandatory labeling, especially the produce. The country of origin should be clearly shown on the item in the store.  I go to the local farmers' markets in season and keep a wary eye open the rest of the year. (Local markets can have very lax food safety rules and enforcement.) Please read this very carefully, and read to the very bottom.  It's important for all of us. How is it possible to ship food from China cheaper than having it produced in the U.S. or Canada ? (Learn how to compete without protectionism and the whole world will be better off.) FOR EXAMPLE THE "OUR FAMILY" BRAND OF MANDARIN ORANGES SAYS RIGHT ON THE CAN 'FROM CHINA '.  SO, FOR A FEW MORE CENTS, BUY THE LIBERTY BRAND. After this serious read,  you'll need something to make you laugh Available now from Amazon or Smashwords GOLD BRAND OR THE DOLE IS FROM CALIFORNIA (Always look for the best value and quality for the price regardless of origin.) Beware, Costco sells canned peaches and pears in a plastic jar that come from China . (China is not alone in putting food in plastic. It’s a normal practice everywhere.) ALL "HIGH LINER" AND MOST OTHER FROZEN FISH PRODUCTS COME FROM CHINA OR INDONESIA . THE PACKAGE MAY SAY "PACIFIC SALMON" ON THE FRONT, BUT LOOK FOR THE SMALL PRINT.  MOST OF THESE PRODUCTS COME FROM FISH FARMS IN THE ORIENT WHERE THERE ARE NO REGULATIONS ON WHAT IS FED TO THESE FISH. (Perhaps no regulations that the writer wants to know about.) Recently The Montreal Gazette (Again no specifics.) had an article by the Canadian Government (Who in the Government?) on how Chinese feed the fish: They suspend chicken wire crates over the fish ponds, and the fish feed on chicken s--t.  (I’m surprised that this writer, after spreading so much muck. can’t bring himself to say shit.) If you search the internet about what the Chinese feed their fish, you'll be alarmed; e.g., growth hormones, expired anti-biotic from humans.  Never buy any type of fish or shellfish that comes from these countries: Vietnam , China , Philippines .. (I’m getting a little tired of this crap.) Check this out personally.  I did.  Steinfeld's Pickles are made in India - just as bad! Another example is in canned mushrooms.  No-Name brand came from Indonesia . Also check those little fruit cups.  They used to be made in Canada in the Niagara region until about 2 years ago.  They are now packaged in China ! While the Chinese export inferior and even toxic products, dangerous toys, and goods to be sold in North American markets, the media wrings its hands! Yet, 70% of North Americans believe that the trading privileges afforded to the Chinese should be suspended! Well, duh! Why do you need the government to suspend trading privileges? SIMPLY DO IT YOURSELF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Simply look on the bottom of every product you buy, and if it says 'Made in China ' or 'PRC' (and that now includes Hong Kong ), simply choose another product, or none at all.  You will be amazed at how dependent you are on Chinese products, and you will be equally amazed at what you can do without. THINK ABOUT THIS: If 200 million North Americans refuse to buy just $20 each of Chinese goods, that's a billion dollar trade imbalance resolved in our favor... fast!  The downside?  Some Canadian/American businesses will feel a temporary pinch from having foreign stockpiles of inventory. Just one month of trading losses will hit the Chinese for 8% of their North American exports. Then they will at least have to ask themselves if the benefits of their arrogance and lawlessness are worth it. START NOW and don't stop!!!!!!!!!! Send this to everybody you know.  Let's show them that we are intelligent, and NOBODY can take us for granted. (Oh! Now the writer claims to be intelligent! What do you think?)

Some people think they can turn the clock back to the era of cavemen in which every country, city and village would only allow trade and employment between the people within its own borders. But more than anything else, transportation has changed the world, the way we work and trade, our standard of living and quality of life, and our life expectancy. 

BLAME THE TRUCK DRIVER

Mandatory speed limiters coming for US truckers

According to a report from the US Department of Transport, October 1 could see a new motor carrier rule requiring all heavy vehicles to use speed limiters. This is in spite of a recent court ruling declaring speed limiters unsafe.

But a study of traffic flows in America, and most other civilized countries, would quickly show that average truck speeds are considerable less than the average for other vehicles. Truck speed problems are imaginary only.

Trucks travel slower for two reasons: In many places the speed limit is lower for trucks and trucks are incapable of traveling faster on hills, or accelerating rapidly after a slow-down. But most truck drivers would feel safer if they were allowed to go with the flow, complying with uniform speed limits for all vehicle types.

In the USA a truck driver is five times more likely to be killed on the job compared to the average worker and this fact may be unduly influencing the lawmakers. But let’s look at how these truck drivers are killed.

Firstly, they are rarely killed in single vehicle accidents. Most fatal truck crashes include one or more cars. For many years the truck/car crash statistics have shown a 70/30% apportionment of fault against the car driver. But this ratio is not clear-cut because sometimes there may be more than one driver at fault.

Typically, the car drivers in these crashes fall into two categories: First, a confused or inexperienced car driver who, unaware of the danger, just drives inappropriately while close to a truck. Second, is the driver with “small man” syndrome who deliberately drives inappropriately near a truck, or just drives at high speed to prove to one and all that he’s a real man.

In many crashes the truck driver has died trying to avoid an accident created by someone else. But a big rig does not respond well to abrupt changes of direction.

The latest statistics from the USA show that the 70/30 apportionment is now out of date. Rule changes and training have lifted the bar for truckers and they can now claim  80/20 as the norm. Meanwhile, many car drivers still fail to understand the risks they are taking with their own lives and the lives of others.

In many truck/car crashes the car was being driven erratically and even at exceptionally high speed for the conditions. What chance would a trucker have of avoiding a collision with such a vehicle, either going the same way, or in the opposite direction?

All over the world speeding cars have always been a major factor in road crashes. The younger the driver, the worse the problem; they know so much when they know so little. When they are young they can react in a split-second (they believe), so for them it is safe to drive like a bullet (they believe).

Therefore, I propose to throw a spoke in the wheel of the US legislators, who are influenced by voters, who incidentally are mostly car drivers. My suggestion is that speed limiters should only be mandatory in cars driven by inexperienced, young drivers.

I further suggest that compelling a truck driver to travel slower than the limit for other vehicles is a breach of his human rights because it exposes him to unnecessary and avoidable danger.

But my 50 years of professional driving won’t count for anything unless others endorse what I am saying.

DO NOT GO DRIVING!

It's safer to stay home with a good book

Available now from Amazon  or Smashwords

A FLYING LEGEND

Bob Hoover the 92 year-old gentleman pilot

Starting as an assistant in a Nashville, Tennessee grocery store Robert A (Bob) Hoover went on to become one of the greatest aviation legends of all time.

Flying Legend Bob Hoover

Hoover learned to fly at Berry Field, Tennessee in the 1930s and soon developed a taste for aerobatics, in spite of early encounters with air sickness. He joined the Tennessee National Guard and during World War II served in North Africa as a fighter pilot, being shot down on his 59^th mission he became a prisoner of war. His third attempt to escape was successful – flying a stolen German FW 190, the same type that had shot him down.

Bob Hoover became a test pilot after the war and flew many new types of jet and piston-engine aircraft. Then he turned to demonstration flying at air shows and became famed for his aerobatics in a Shrike Commander, an executive six place twin.

His favorite maneuvers included engine-out eight-point rolls, barrel rolls and loops followed by an engine out landing.

Bob Hoover with the Aero Commander Shrike

Bob Hoover retired from flying at the age of 82, but was temporarily pulled out of retirement at the age of 90 to advise, by telephone, the pilot of a P51 who was having trouble lowering one side of the undercarriage. Hoover advised, “Yaw it really good and try to force some air under the gear door. Then do a series of positive and negative G maneuvers.” The P51 landed safely.

Gentleman pilot, Bob Hoover has been honored and awarded probably more times than any other pilot in US aviation history. He lives in coastal Southern California with his wife Colleen in the house they have owned for 65 years.

Watch the video: Skilled pilots - Bob Hoover

Available now from Amazon or Smashwords