Tuesday, 11 September 2012

US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS


Romney Camp Seeks to Head Off Post-Convention Anxieties
By JIM RUTENBERG and JEFF ZELENY Published: September 10, 2012


President Obama raised more money in August than Mitt Romneydid, outpacing him for the first time since the spring and adding to a sense in both parties that Mr. Obama is entering the post-convention sprint to Election Day in a slightly stronger position, leaving Mr. Romney with less than two months to change that dynamic.
With some nervousness apparent among Republicans, Mr. Romney’s campaign rushed out a memo on Monday stating that any post-convention polling lift for Mr. Obama was “a sugar high” that would not last the next few weeks, let alone to Election Day.
Even as one of the first post-convention polls by a major news organization, from CNN and ORC International, showed Mr. Obama with a slight gain, 52 to 46, over Mr. Romney, within the poll’s margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, the two campaigns agreed that readings right after the conventions can be ephemeral and that the race was likely to remain competitive until the end . . . .
More in NY Times: http://www.nytimes.com

Peter’s Comment

A six point lead two months out from polling day is almost a comfortable lead.

Allowing for the scientifically calculated margin of error of 4 per cent that leaves at worst a 2 per cent lead, putting the incumbent president in a good position for the final sprint. On the other hand his lead could be as much as 10 per cent, which if carried through to polling day would represent a crushing defeat for the Republicans.

But anything can happen in the next two months. They still have a lot of advertising money to spend and the coming face-to-face television debates could be crucial. Also, if the polling does get closer and the pressure mounts, desperate throw-away lines could make or break the race for either candidate.

Romney is the underdog in this race. Not only is he the least experienced presidential campaigner, but finally there are traces of good news coming through on the economy and jobs. Finally, incumbent presidents win more often than they lose and at this stage Obama appears to be winning.